* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL132023 09/12/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 102 105 106 107 109 104 101 92 87 75 60 44 35 31 33 35 V (KT) LAND 100 102 105 106 107 109 104 101 92 87 75 60 40 34 30 33 35 V (KT) LGEM 100 101 102 103 104 105 103 96 88 78 58 38 29 31 30 30 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 6 14 9 10 15 19 32 49 43 35 26 28 40 57 63 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 5 4 6 -1 -2 5 7 8 7 -2 0 3 0 1 1 SHEAR DIR 245 239 253 252 240 225 236 209 204 200 191 195 208 237 256 262 267 SST (C) 29.5 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.2 27.3 26.7 27.8 21.3 16.2 17.6 16.2 15.3 8.6 9.7 POT. INT. (KT) 158 155 153 153 152 151 140 129 123 136 85 71 74 72 71 65 64 200 MB T (C) -49.7 -49.1 -49.4 -49.5 -48.9 -48.7 -48.6 -47.7 -47.3 -47.0 -46.2 -47.2 -48.0 -48.7 -50.4 -51.8 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.7 2.4 2.1 2.4 1.3 1.4 2.5 2.3 2.9 2.7 1.4 0.0 -0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 10 9 7 7 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 54 57 58 59 63 64 63 58 47 34 33 44 50 57 54 50 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 40 42 43 43 44 48 47 48 48 50 47 38 29 23 20 15 12 850 MB ENV VOR 60 71 66 57 75 93 106 123 154 174 162 139 98 60 17 10 17 200 MB DIV 39 67 62 50 41 94 116 120 106 83 39 37 51 9 -15 -9 -9 700-850 TADV 2 0 2 9 11 14 18 9 3 7 15 6 1 7 2 -31 -22 LAND (KM) 609 645 658 702 745 857 1004 853 782 548 303 49 -18 133 31 87 326 LAT (DEG N) 24.1 24.5 24.8 25.4 25.9 27.4 29.3 31.6 34.3 37.4 40.5 43.3 45.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 65.7 66.2 66.7 67.0 67.3 67.8 68.0 67.9 67.3 66.8 66.7 66.3 65.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 7 9 10 13 15 16 15 13 13 17 17 14 11 HEAT CONTENT 55 54 51 45 42 38 23 8 3 26 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 659 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 2. -1. -8. -17. -26. -36. -45. -50. -55. -58. -58. -57. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 17. 22. 25. 33. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -5. -7. -9. -9. -11. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 5. 6. 6. 9. 3. -11. -26. -34. -40. -46. -48. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 6. 7. 9. 4. 1. -8. -13. -25. -40. -56. -65. -69. -67. -65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 24.1 65.7 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132023 LEE 09/12/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.60 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 49.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.31 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.80 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.40 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.36 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.6 27.0 to 144.1 0.07 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.38 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 604.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.30 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.0% 14.3% 10.4% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.9% 6.5% 3.9% 2.1% 1.0% 1.1% 0.9% 0.0% Bayesian: 3.9% 1.4% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.9% 7.4% 5.0% 3.3% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% DTOPS: 8.0% 11.0% 9.0% 3.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132023 LEE 09/12/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132023 LEE 09/12/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 27( 43) 27( 58) 28( 70) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 28 53( 66) 29( 76) 27( 82) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 102 105 106 107 109 104 101 92 87 75 60 40 34 30 33 35 18HR AGO 100 99 102 103 104 106 101 98 89 84 72 57 37 31 27 30 32 12HR AGO 100 97 96 97 98 100 95 92 83 78 66 51 31 25 21 24 26 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 91 93 88 85 76 71 59 44 24 18 DIS DIS DIS NOW 100 91 85 82 81 83 78 75 66 61 49 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 100 102 93 87 84 85 80 77 68 63 51 36 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 100 102 105 96 90 86 81 78 69 64 52 37 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS