* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL132023 09/12/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 101 103 104 105 104 100 90 83 77 66 45 33 28 26 31 29 V (KT) LAND 100 101 103 104 105 104 100 90 83 77 66 45 31 32 30 36 33 V (KT) LGEM 100 100 101 101 102 103 98 91 83 71 48 32 28 31 29 32 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 11 11 9 8 17 13 22 41 43 45 24 28 32 35 40 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 6 4 0 -6 5 8 11 12 0 1 1 1 7 3 1 SHEAR DIR 238 241 236 237 232 230 204 219 192 197 182 193 216 227 238 258 273 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.0 29.0 28.6 27.8 27.0 26.5 24.7 18.2 15.1 18.4 15.9 13.8 9.5 12.6 POT. INT. (KT) 155 153 153 150 151 145 135 126 121 105 75 69 75 73 70 65 67 200 MB T (C) -49.1 -49.4 -49.7 -49.0 -48.5 -48.7 -47.7 -48.0 -47.0 -46.4 -46.5 -47.3 -47.9 -48.5 -49.7 -49.8 -49.3 200 MB VXT (C) 1.6 1.5 1.8 1.7 2.2 2.6 2.7 2.2 1.1 1.6 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.0 1.2 0.7 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 11 10 10 9 8 6 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 56 56 56 61 64 62 62 53 40 33 40 45 54 59 59 59 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 43 44 44 45 46 48 48 46 48 50 45 32 25 21 19 16 14 850 MB ENV VOR 75 70 61 79 96 98 116 127 148 162 133 137 129 113 32 48 47 200 MB DIV 71 69 67 64 104 87 122 117 61 80 83 43 49 49 32 35 5 700-850 TADV 0 3 10 8 9 17 12 14 -4 6 14 7 21 17 -4 -34 -50 LAND (KM) 650 673 698 757 812 924 890 790 676 382 175 29 -58 111 14 271 528 LAT (DEG N) 24.5 25.0 25.4 26.1 26.7 28.4 30.6 32.9 36.0 39.3 42.2 44.6 46.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 66.2 66.7 67.2 67.4 67.6 68.2 68.3 67.8 67.2 66.7 66.7 66.3 65.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 7 8 10 12 14 16 16 13 10 12 18 19 14 12 HEAT CONTENT 54 49 44 41 40 28 13 5 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 693 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 2. -2. -10. -19. -29. -39. -48. -53. -58. -60. -59. -56. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -1. 0. 3. 9. 13. 19. 23. 26. 34. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. -7. -9. -9. -11. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 1. 3. 5. -3. -23. -35. -40. -45. -48. -48. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. -0. -10. -17. -23. -34. -55. -67. -72. -74. -69. -71. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 24.5 66.2 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132023 LEE 09/12/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.62 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 45.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.28 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.90 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.40 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.43 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.1 27.0 to 144.1 0.05 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.48 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 597.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.31 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.1% 15.9% 11.4% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.8% 12.2% 8.0% 4.5% 2.1% 1.6% 0.7% 0.0% Bayesian: 3.1% 1.1% 0.9% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.3% 9.7% 6.8% 4.3% 0.8% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% DTOPS: 4.0% 9.0% 6.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132023 LEE 09/12/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132023 LEE 09/12/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 25( 42) 27( 57) 26( 68) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 32 34( 55) 49( 77) 1( 77) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 101 103 104 105 104 100 90 83 77 66 45 31 32 30 36 33 18HR AGO 100 99 101 102 103 102 98 88 81 75 64 43 29 30 28 34 31 12HR AGO 100 97 96 97 98 97 93 83 76 70 59 38 24 25 23 29 26 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 91 90 86 76 69 63 52 31 17 18 16 22 19 NOW 100 91 85 82 81 80 76 66 59 53 42 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 100 101 92 86 83 80 76 66 59 53 42 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 100 101 103 94 88 84 80 70 63 57 46 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS