* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982023 09/13/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 19 21 22 26 30 36 38 38 37 39 42 45 47 50 54 V (KT) LAND 20 19 19 21 22 26 30 36 38 38 37 39 42 45 47 50 54 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 21 22 24 25 27 27 27 26 26 26 28 31 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 9 8 12 13 12 14 20 26 24 19 13 15 13 14 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 4 3 5 6 2 3 4 3 3 -1 -3 -2 -3 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 43 37 26 30 16 13 306 271 219 206 225 219 216 228 252 244 242 SST (C) 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.1 28.6 28.9 29.0 29.3 29.2 29.0 29.0 29.3 29.1 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 148 152 154 154 154 155 157 149 153 154 157 155 151 153 157 154 150 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.0 -53.1 -52.8 -52.8 -53.1 -52.7 -52.6 -51.9 -51.8 -51.1 -50.7 -50.2 -49.9 -49.9 -49.8 -49.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 5 5 6 7 8 7 7 7 7 8 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 69 72 70 70 69 68 65 64 64 65 62 57 56 54 54 51 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 14 21 28 42 61 58 40 32 38 39 32 36 29 49 45 56 200 MB DIV -29 -15 0 14 33 65 88 82 90 102 55 -17 13 2 14 28 44 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -3 -4 -10 -11 4 12 16 28 13 9 6 -2 -9 2 3 LAND (KM) 796 887 1008 1131 1276 1609 1977 2088 1941 1696 1530 1427 1354 1224 1134 1072 1113 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 12.8 13.0 13.2 13.5 14.7 16.7 19.0 21.2 23.0 24.6 25.6 26.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 24.6 25.5 26.7 27.9 29.3 32.5 35.9 39.5 43.2 46.5 49.0 50.9 52.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 12 13 15 18 20 21 19 16 12 10 9 12 12 11 9 HEAT CONTENT 12 13 17 22 21 24 29 39 38 29 28 31 25 28 48 34 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 14. 24. 32. 38. 44. 47. 49. 49. 48. 47. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. -0. -5. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 1. 2. 6. 10. 16. 18. 18. 17. 19. 22. 25. 27. 30. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.7 24.6 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982023 INVEST 09/13/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.55 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.11 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.92 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.55 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.3 27.0 to 144.1 0.89 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.14 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 65.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.86 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.0 109.3 to 0.0 0.93 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 8.7% 5.7% 2.1% 0.8% 3.1% 2.0% 5.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 4.7% 2.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 1.4% Consensus: 1.0% 4.5% 2.6% 0.7% 0.3% 1.2% 0.7% 2.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982023 INVEST 09/13/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 19 19 21 22 26 30 36 38 38 37 39 42 45 47 50 54 18HR AGO 20 19 19 21 22 26 30 36 38 38 37 39 42 45 47 50 54 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 19 23 27 33 35 35 34 36 39 42 44 47 51 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT