* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARGOT AL142023 09/14/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 62 61 60 60 61 57 53 48 45 45 45 42 33 26 18 N/A V (KT) LAND 65 62 61 60 60 61 57 53 48 45 45 45 42 33 26 18 N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 61 60 60 60 60 58 53 48 46 47 47 43 37 32 27 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 14 14 17 14 15 12 13 3 16 20 27 16 14 19 26 47 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 3 -1 -2 2 4 1 0 -4 3 6 -1 9 7 11 -2 SHEAR DIR 222 212 234 252 258 284 317 30 307 260 237 236 282 325 300 290 298 SST (C) 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.8 26.8 26.9 26.9 27.2 26.9 26.7 25.1 24.6 24.4 23.0 22.0 21.0 POT. INT. (KT) 121 120 118 117 117 118 120 121 124 121 120 106 103 101 94 90 87 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -52.3 -52.1 -51.7 -51.7 -51.3 -50.8 -50.7 -50.5 -49.5 -50.0 -51.5 -52.0 -51.3 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 1.7 1.3 0.8 1.2 2.0 0.9 1.0 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.0 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.6 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 54 54 52 50 49 39 36 31 33 38 42 49 43 36 38 41 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 36 36 36 36 37 34 32 28 25 27 29 30 27 23 18 13 850 MB ENV VOR 15 23 21 27 17 13 -18 -29 -33 -36 -45 -47 -31 -11 -13 -21 -47 200 MB DIV -10 6 38 10 -2 -13 -79 -60 -15 3 52 44 0 -15 -33 -20 -31 700-850 TADV 6 4 6 2 1 -2 2 -2 0 2 15 -1 0 6 15 5 10 LAND (KM) 1618 1594 1572 1583 1593 1602 1610 1576 1496 1382 1251 1209 1291 1481 1740 1505 1010 LAT (DEG N) 35.6 36.1 36.5 36.6 36.6 36.5 36.0 35.7 35.9 36.7 38.2 39.7 41.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 40.5 40.2 39.9 39.6 39.4 39.4 40.0 41.1 42.3 43.1 43.0 41.6 38.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 3 2 1 2 4 4 5 6 8 11 13 12 15 20 22 HEAT CONTENT 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 5 3 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 5 CX,CY: 1/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 716 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -16. -21. -26. -32. -37. -41. -45. -46. -48. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 16. 17. 19. 20. 20. 22. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. -3. -7. -13. -18. -18. -16. -16. -20. -27. -34. -39. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -8. -12. -17. -20. -20. -20. -23. -32. -39. -47. -52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 35.6 40.5 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142023 MARGOT 09/14/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 1.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.61 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.35 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.93 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.50 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.2 27.0 to 144.1 0.03 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.18 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 443.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.47 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 43.2 109.3 to 0.0 0.60 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 7.9% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 2.7% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142023 MARGOT 09/14/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142023 MARGOT 09/14/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 62 61 60 60 61 57 53 48 45 45 45 42 33 26 18 DIS 18HR AGO 65 64 63 62 62 63 59 55 50 47 47 47 44 35 28 20 DIS 12HR AGO 65 62 61 60 60 61 57 53 48 45 45 45 42 33 26 18 DIS 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 55 56 52 48 43 40 40 40 37 28 21 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT