* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARGOT AL142023 09/15/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 57 55 54 53 48 42 37 37 40 41 34 27 18 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 57 55 54 53 48 42 37 37 40 41 34 27 18 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 57 56 55 54 51 46 41 41 43 43 39 34 30 26 23 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 12 18 23 18 24 11 5 15 17 11 3 10 18 29 36 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 5 3 0 -4 3 0 0 5 -5 2 -3 1 9 17 20 SHEAR DIR 293 296 269 287 319 39 73 320 229 247 264 27 304 299 300 287 298 SST (C) 26.5 26.6 26.6 26.8 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.6 25.8 24.7 25.4 23.8 23.3 22.6 22.2 22.5 POT. INT. (KT) 115 116 116 119 120 121 121 121 119 112 103 109 97 95 92 89 91 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.6 -51.9 -52.0 -52.2 -51.6 -51.4 -51.0 -51.1 -50.1 -51.0 -52.1 -52.7 -52.6 -52.5 -52.9 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.5 1.9 1.8 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.5 -0.3 0.2 0.1 -0.4 -0.4 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 4 3 2 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 49 44 39 37 36 31 33 36 40 44 44 37 33 35 31 30 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 34 33 34 34 32 28 24 25 27 28 24 20 16 11 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 11 14 7 -3 -13 -24 -26 -30 -49 -63 -57 -61 -61 -57 -45 -52 -73 200 MB DIV -21 -15 -24 -27 -45 -83 -48 -17 7 18 5 -13 -12 -14 -42 -40 -14 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -4 -3 -3 -2 0 0 3 10 0 6 15 6 -40 -94 -86 LAND (KM) 1619 1635 1652 1675 1699 1652 1572 1475 1325 1267 1344 1506 1705 1780 1418 1088 778 LAT (DEG N) 36.8 36.6 36.4 36.1 35.7 35.4 35.3 35.8 37.2 38.6 39.6 40.0 40.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 38.7 38.7 38.7 38.8 38.9 40.2 41.9 42.9 43.3 42.1 39.6 36.8 34.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 3 4 4 6 6 5 7 9 11 11 12 15 16 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 1 2 3 3 6 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):115/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 676 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -8. -13. -17. -22. -28. -32. -36. -39. -39. -40. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 17. 19. 20. 19. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -9. -16. -17. -15. -16. -22. -29. -35. -43. -48. -49. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -6. -7. -12. -18. -23. -23. -20. -19. -26. -33. -42. -49. -52. -54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 36.8 38.7 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142023 MARGOT 09/15/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 2.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.49 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 126.5 1.00 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.58 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.9 27.0 to 144.1 0.06 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -26.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.02 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 499.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.41 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 56.6 109.3 to 0.0 0.48 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.8% 8.4% 6.1% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 3.0% 2.1% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142023 MARGOT 09/15/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142023 MARGOT 09/15/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 57 55 54 53 48 42 37 37 40 41 34 27 18 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 57 56 55 50 44 39 39 42 43 36 29 20 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 55 54 49 43 38 38 41 42 35 28 19 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 49 44 38 33 33 36 37 30 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT