* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942023 09/15/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 24 23 22 25 25 23 23 21 20 20 23 25 27 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 24 23 22 25 25 23 23 21 20 20 23 25 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 24 23 22 21 20 20 20 18 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 13 14 13 16 15 11 8 16 21 24 26 32 37 34 27 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 3 3 0 2 2 7 5 3 7 2 -2 0 2 0 SHEAR DIR 251 267 271 259 260 287 264 256 229 246 257 272 267 275 279 274 273 SST (C) 27.8 27.2 26.8 26.5 26.5 26.8 27.5 27.7 27.4 27.2 26.6 26.7 27.1 27.3 27.1 27.4 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 143 135 130 127 127 130 138 140 137 135 128 129 133 135 133 137 142 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -52.1 -52.3 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -53.3 -53.5 -53.8 -53.6 -53.2 -52.8 -52.8 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 61 59 54 53 50 51 48 48 51 52 54 53 52 51 54 54 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 13 13 13 13 12 13 11 10 9 7 6 4 4 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR 19 15 14 16 19 16 23 12 19 1 3 -8 -7 -6 6 10 16 200 MB DIV 63 73 68 65 39 30 34 -2 1 -18 -21 -7 -23 -42 -54 -25 -16 700-850 TADV -1 0 3 2 0 1 -2 2 3 4 2 5 4 2 -3 -4 -4 LAND (KM) 2227 2142 2070 2005 1957 1845 1738 1611 1468 1324 1191 1051 940 852 800 801 814 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.9 15.2 15.3 15.2 14.9 14.5 14.2 14.1 14.1 14.3 14.5 14.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 134.6 135.2 135.8 136.4 136.9 138.1 139.3 140.7 142.2 143.7 145.0 146.4 147.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 8 6 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 6 6 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 12 6 3 2 2 5 11 9 5 4 2 3 6 6 4 5 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 13 CX,CY: -7/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 745 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 28. 31. 33. 34. 35. 34. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -6. -9. -13. -16. -19. -20. -19. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -11. -10. -8. -5. -3. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. -7. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -2. -0. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.2 134.6 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP942023 INVEST 09/15/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.63 4.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.31 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 144.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.75 -4.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.49 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.02 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 18.3 49.8 to 0.0 0.63 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.04 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.3% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0% 9.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 4.4% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 3.2% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942023 INVEST 09/15/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##