* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL132023 09/15/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 66 61 54 47 29 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 66 61 54 47 36 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 66 61 52 43 31 27 25 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 43 43 35 39 39 33 33 44 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 11 11 9 2 2 5 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 191 191 196 186 184 192 206 229 245 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 26.1 23.0 19.1 16.6 18.5 14.5 8.6 10.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 117 94 79 73 77 72 68 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -48.0 -48.0 -48.3 -48.3 -48.0 -47.9 -47.5 -46.6 -46.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.8 0.7 1.2 1.8 1.6 1.2 0.9 1.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 42 42 45 49 49 59 65 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 46 49 50 48 45 31 26 23 22 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 120 128 132 114 105 106 125 100 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 61 45 39 90 78 64 58 25 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 3 14 -2 -6 4 17 -10 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 587 456 361 200 18 0 85 62 540 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.0 38.6 40.1 41.9 43.6 46.6 49.2 52.4 54.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 66.8 66.5 66.2 66.2 66.2 64.7 60.5 54.8 47.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 17 17 16 17 22 24 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 17 CX,CY: 3/ 17 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -2. -4. -6. -11. -18. -24. -29. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -5. 1. 8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -6. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 1. -1. -14. -24. -31. -36. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -16. -22. -41. -53. -59. -59. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 37.0 66.8 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132023 LEE 09/15/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 58.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.03 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.37 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.85 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.81 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 17.9 27.0 to 144.1 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.43 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 397.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.51 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 79.4 109.3 to 0.0 0.27 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132023 LEE 09/15/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132023 LEE 09/15/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 0( 4) 0( 4) 0( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 66 61 54 47 36 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 70 69 64 57 50 39 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 70 67 66 59 52 41 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 53 42 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT