* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL132023 09/16/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 65 59 51 41 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 65 59 51 40 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 66 57 47 37 33 28 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 40 39 39 39 34 31 36 50 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 7 6 0 -2 0 2 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 191 197 184 189 196 197 219 231 252 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.8 23.0 19.1 18.3 16.7 17.1 15.3 10.0 11.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 124 94 78 76 73 75 74 69 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -48.1 -48.4 -48.2 -48.0 -48.2 -47.9 -47.6 -46.8 -46.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.6 1.6 1.1 0.5 1.1 1.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 43 46 50 49 52 62 62 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 48 48 48 44 37 28 24 23 19 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 131 128 118 106 113 102 95 77 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 49 45 71 75 81 78 58 23 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 4 -5 7 0 5 -8 -45 -26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 497 375 213 54 -33 84 -14 377 844 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 38.4 40.1 41.7 43.1 44.5 47.2 50.0 52.5 54.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 66.0 66.1 66.1 65.6 65.2 62.7 57.5 50.1 43.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 15 14 15 19 24 25 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 17 CX,CY: 4/ 16 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -4. -6. -9. -13. -20. -25. -31. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -7. -8. -7. -3. 2. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -6. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -3. -9. -18. -29. -35. -43. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -11. -19. -29. -44. -59. -64. -69. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 38.4 66.0 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132023 LEE 09/16/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 52.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.85 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.71 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 9.9 27.0 to 144.1 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.43 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 368.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.55 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 84.6 109.3 to 0.0 0.23 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132023 LEE 09/16/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132023 LEE 09/16/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 0( 4) 0( 4) 0( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 65 59 51 40 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 70 69 63 55 44 36 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 70 67 66 58 47 39 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 49 41 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT