* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN AL152023 09/16/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 41 46 55 65 75 81 86 88 90 82 82 79 81 77 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 41 46 55 65 75 81 86 88 90 82 82 79 81 77 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 36 39 46 54 64 73 79 85 85 76 71 69 66 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 6 5 5 8 7 4 12 6 14 12 22 32 36 44 58 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 3 6 2 0 -2 3 -4 -1 -2 0 2 0 5 5 8 SHEAR DIR 74 68 98 118 99 80 74 69 76 138 238 231 226 195 210 206 213 SST (C) 28.9 29.1 29.0 29.2 29.2 29.5 29.4 29.4 28.7 28.9 28.1 27.9 27.5 27.6 25.4 25.6 22.2 POT. INT. (KT) 151 155 153 156 156 161 159 159 147 150 138 137 132 135 112 114 91 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.4 -51.9 -51.9 -51.9 -51.4 -51.5 -51.0 -50.6 -50.2 -50.1 -50.0 -50.0 -49.5 -50.1 -49.9 -49.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.8 1.8 0.8 1.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 8 7 8 8 8 8 6 3 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 69 68 66 63 61 64 62 63 64 60 59 53 42 38 37 31 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 17 18 19 20 23 26 28 30 31 34 31 34 36 41 41 850 MB ENV VOR 61 56 53 46 29 37 22 41 18 7 -8 31 21 53 92 107 108 200 MB DIV 85 71 76 59 42 54 4 36 15 57 22 111 38 44 54 35 8 700-850 TADV 0 4 8 5 6 6 3 6 -3 1 6 1 -3 -58 -105 -159 -110 LAND (KM) 1566 1559 1525 1486 1429 1342 1288 1235 1243 1318 1462 1293 1065 927 783 857 1034 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 18.4 19.6 20.5 21.4 23.0 24.6 25.8 27.3 28.9 30.8 33.2 36.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 45.0 45.9 46.8 47.7 48.7 50.2 51.8 53.6 55.6 57.2 58.5 58.7 57.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 15 13 13 12 11 10 11 11 11 11 13 15 19 21 20 19 HEAT CONTENT 40 45 46 57 52 38 36 31 25 31 15 14 9 18 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):329/ 12 CX,CY: -5/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 9. 15. 20. 23. 26. 26. 25. 23. 19. 16. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. 11. 10. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 12. 14. 18. 19. 22. 16. 19. 21. 26. 24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 4. 2. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 16. 25. 35. 45. 51. 56. 58. 60. 53. 52. 49. 51. 47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.2 45.0 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152023 FIFTEEN 09/16/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.73 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 48.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.30 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.64 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.4 27.0 to 144.1 0.78 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.44 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 134.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.79 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 33% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 23.7% 12.5% 9.1% 7.1% 11.9% 16.8% 33.0% Logistic: 4.8% 11.0% 6.9% 2.0% 0.5% 3.1% 4.3% 7.3% Bayesian: 1.3% 1.2% 2.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.9% 5.7% 7.1% Consensus: 3.3% 12.0% 7.2% 3.8% 2.5% 5.3% 8.9% 15.8% DTOPS: 1.0% 10.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.0% 3.0% 28.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152023 FIFTEEN 09/16/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152023 FIFTEEN 09/16/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 37 41 46 55 65 75 81 86 88 90 82 82 79 81 77 18HR AGO 30 29 33 37 42 51 61 71 77 82 84 86 78 78 75 77 73 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 35 44 54 64 70 75 77 79 71 71 68 70 66 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 25 34 44 54 60 65 67 69 61 61 58 60 56 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT