* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NIGEL AL152023 09/17/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 58 67 76 85 95 99 102 96 89 80 68 65 62 73 81 75 V (KT) LAND 50 58 67 76 85 95 99 102 96 89 80 68 65 62 73 81 75 V (KT) LGEM 50 57 65 73 80 93 99 102 96 89 80 69 57 47 44 42 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 1 6 5 4 4 10 5 6 5 13 22 32 50 63 64 31 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 1 0 -1 -5 -3 1 4 4 3 12 14 9 -1 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 42 92 76 60 73 42 114 194 212 231 222 229 241 246 232 217 211 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 28.4 28.2 28.2 27.8 27.4 26.1 24.5 19.9 16.2 14.2 13.0 12.2 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 153 155 155 142 140 140 135 132 119 108 86 76 71 66 64 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.1 -51.4 -51.3 -51.3 -50.5 -50.2 -49.8 -50.1 -49.6 -49.1 -48.2 -48.2 -47.9 -48.2 -47.2 -46.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.4 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.0 1.5 1.3 0.7 1.1 1.2 1.6 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 7 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 56 59 60 60 59 63 62 61 61 52 42 34 36 43 54 70 83 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 24 25 28 30 30 34 33 34 34 33 34 30 34 37 33 850 MB ENV VOR 8 13 15 6 0 0 -18 -28 -27 -13 48 138 187 240 223 278 256 200 MB DIV 45 63 36 19 21 21 24 44 67 79 61 76 136 112 76 93 45 700-850 TADV 9 7 5 3 0 1 -4 2 2 3 -20 -15 84 154 83 21 -11 LAND (KM) 1496 1476 1465 1452 1449 1457 1503 1611 1383 1135 861 866 1304 1296 912 590 539 LAT (DEG N) 23.5 24.3 25.0 25.8 26.6 28.0 29.4 31.4 33.7 36.4 39.3 42.6 46.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 48.8 49.4 50.0 50.8 51.5 53.0 54.4 55.5 55.1 53.2 49.7 43.7 35.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 10 10 10 9 10 11 13 18 24 31 32 30 21 9 6 HEAT CONTENT 30 37 33 32 31 19 18 16 12 11 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 12 CX,CY: -5/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 63.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 14. 16. 17. 18. 20. 23. 26. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 4. 4. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 5. 6. 8. 14. 12. 13. 14. 10. 11. 4. 9. 12. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 6. 11. 16. 22. 21. 15. 7. -0. -8. -14. -16. -16. -16. -17. -16. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 8. 17. 26. 35. 45. 49. 52. 46. 39. 30. 18. 15. 12. 23. 31. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 23.5 48.8 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152023 NIGEL 09/17/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 12.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.81 6.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.20 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 4.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.73 2.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.49 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.4 27.0 to 144.1 0.52 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.31 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 290.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.63 2.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.6 109.3 to 0.0 0.99 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 48% is 4.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 6.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 37% is 8.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 52% is 11.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 44% is 8.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.5% 47.6% 34.2% 22.4% 16.1% 37.1% 52.3% 43.7% Logistic: 15.1% 36.7% 30.4% 16.1% 5.0% 19.7% 17.6% 12.6% Bayesian: 14.4% 16.4% 19.5% 5.5% 2.6% 10.0% 3.7% 0.2% Consensus: 14.3% 33.5% 28.0% 14.7% 7.9% 22.3% 24.6% 18.8% DTOPS: 9.0% 60.0% 28.0% 11.0% 3.0% 40.0% 60.0% 30.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152023 NIGEL 09/17/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152023 NIGEL 09/17/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 10( 13) 17( 28) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 58 67 76 85 95 99 102 96 89 80 68 65 62 73 81 75 18HR AGO 50 49 58 67 76 86 90 93 87 80 71 59 56 53 64 72 66 12HR AGO 50 47 46 55 64 74 78 81 75 68 59 47 44 41 52 60 54 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 49 59 63 66 60 53 44 32 29 26 37 45 39 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT