* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWELVE EP122023 09/17/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 22 20 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 22 20 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 23 22 21 20 18 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 18 21 22 22 24 25 35 42 51 54 58 53 65 53 66 58 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 0 2 3 3 4 2 3 3 5 0 3 -3 12 0 7 SHEAR DIR 231 222 232 239 249 251 272 266 262 241 237 234 256 274 285 302 308 SST (C) 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.7 27.8 27.6 27.6 27.2 27.3 28.0 28.2 28.5 28.6 28.8 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 139 138 138 138 140 142 144 142 142 137 138 145 147 151 151 153 156 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -52.8 -53.4 -53.3 -53.7 -53.7 -54.1 -53.8 -53.6 -53.2 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 0.0 0.2 0.2 -0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 8 9 8 9 8 9 8 8 8 9 8 9 7 700-500 MB RH 42 41 41 41 41 40 41 40 42 42 47 52 54 57 58 59 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 6 6 5 4 3 3 3 2 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 11 16 17 10 6 -16 -15 -11 -12 -18 -14 -20 -16 -14 -11 -7 200 MB DIV -7 3 -4 -8 -25 -36 6 36 39 28 21 25 11 -14 -48 -55 -21 700-850 TADV 4 2 0 -1 0 1 2 -2 3 0 0 -2 -5 -8 -4 -5 -1 LAND (KM) 1262 1146 1061 1008 942 814 731 707 799 867 935 1060 1254 1493 1749 1990 2216 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.3 13.2 12.9 12.7 12.5 12.4 12.9 13.6 14.6 15.4 16.2 16.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 144.8 146.2 147.3 148.3 149.5 152.0 154.8 157.8 160.8 163.4 166.0 168.4 170.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 10 11 12 13 15 15 14 13 13 12 12 13 12 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 6 13 26 11 6 6 9 17 16 10 19 41 34 35 25 30 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 837 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 10. 19. 27. 34. 38. 42. 44. 45. 47. 48. 49. 51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -7. -16. -26. -36. -46. -53. -59. -61. -60. -61. -59. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -14. -12. -11. -8. -6. -3. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. -7. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. -14. -18. -23. -29. -33. -33. -32. -28. -27. -27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.4 144.8 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122023 TWELVE 09/17/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.6 36.9 to 148.5 0.69 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.06 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 203.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.68 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.13 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.10 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 62.3 49.8 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.29 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 2.9% 1.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.8% 0.1% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 1.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122023 TWELVE 09/17/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##