* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952023 09/18/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 27 33 42 51 62 64 63 58 52 40 30 19 N/A V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 27 33 42 51 62 64 63 58 52 40 30 19 N/A V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 22 24 27 31 35 38 38 34 27 20 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 17 17 15 11 4 4 6 14 16 23 33 41 50 48 44 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 -1 -4 0 -2 -6 -3 4 11 5 5 -2 1 2 1 SHEAR DIR 54 54 59 54 57 345 293 244 169 205 228 236 219 213 218 217 215 SST (C) 29.0 29.3 29.3 29.2 28.9 28.7 28.9 27.9 27.0 26.7 25.7 25.0 23.9 22.4 21.9 21.2 20.9 POT. INT. (KT) 154 158 158 157 154 152 155 144 135 130 120 113 102 87 81 74 71 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -52.0 -52.4 -51.8 -52.1 -51.5 -51.9 -51.6 -52.3 -52.2 -52.8 -53.2 -53.7 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.2 -0.1 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 4 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 79 80 80 79 77 78 77 74 68 63 58 52 44 38 34 31 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 10 11 11 12 13 17 19 20 20 19 14 11 7 4 850 MB ENV VOR 35 34 32 32 29 35 36 32 36 41 38 13 20 -2 9 -16 -33 200 MB DIV 74 48 30 47 57 79 137 119 105 106 84 27 21 21 4 25 40 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -5 -6 -3 -1 0 1 3 3 14 20 15 6 0 -6 -23 LAND (KM) 1114 1135 1172 1212 1212 1249 1344 1438 1554 1626 1629 1529 1347 1154 925 685 433 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.8 12.2 12.7 13.1 13.9 14.8 15.7 16.6 17.5 18.7 20.4 22.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 111.3 112.1 113.0 114.0 115.0 117.1 119.5 121.9 124.3 126.3 127.5 127.7 127.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 11 11 12 12 12 12 9 8 10 12 12 12 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 22 34 49 35 16 13 22 9 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 8. 17. 26. 33. 37. 39. 41. 40. 39. 36. 33. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -5. -8. -12. -16. -21. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 13. 14. 13. 11. 5. 1. -2. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. -8. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 13. 22. 31. 42. 44. 43. 38. 32. 20. 10. -1. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.4 111.3 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP952023 INVEST 09/18/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.1 36.9 to 148.5 0.89 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.39 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 31.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.87 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.44 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.28 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.67 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 2.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 3.0% 7.0% 3.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 1.0% 2.4% 1.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952023 INVEST 09/18/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##