* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952023 09/18/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 31 34 38 47 54 57 53 49 43 35 25 16 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 31 34 38 47 54 57 53 49 43 35 25 16 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 32 35 37 38 39 36 30 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 11 9 8 7 9 12 18 16 18 33 40 45 48 47 45 47 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 1 0 0 0 -5 -1 10 21 12 2 -6 -3 -3 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 62 56 107 135 157 199 190 182 184 211 242 234 228 222 228 227 238 SST (C) 29.1 28.6 28.5 28.7 28.8 27.8 26.8 26.7 26.4 26.0 25.5 24.7 23.8 22.4 22.0 20.9 21.2 POT. INT. (KT) 157 152 151 153 154 143 132 130 126 121 117 110 102 88 84 72 74 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.2 -51.9 -52.0 -52.1 -51.8 -52.1 -51.6 -51.9 -51.3 -51.8 -52.0 -53.0 -53.2 -53.9 -54.5 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 3 3 2 2 1 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 1 0 700-500 MB RH 76 73 73 73 74 72 71 69 64 60 55 49 40 33 29 25 22 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 12 14 14 17 18 20 20 19 18 15 10 7 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 49 40 37 43 45 45 43 52 51 50 22 21 -4 -11 -17 -39 -53 200 MB DIV 32 30 40 46 81 121 102 87 112 83 23 -5 23 0 4 5 0 700-850 TADV -2 0 4 3 2 4 1 2 3 13 25 18 14 1 -3 -26 -23 LAND (KM) 1104 1112 1146 1200 1282 1406 1548 1680 1766 1775 1691 1500 1267 1019 714 363 62 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.2 14.7 15.1 15.4 16.1 16.6 16.9 17.3 17.9 19.1 21.0 23.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 113.9 115.2 116.6 117.9 119.3 121.9 124.2 126.4 127.9 128.6 128.6 127.8 126.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 13 13 12 11 9 6 5 8 11 13 15 15 15 13 HEAT CONTENT 36 13 12 16 21 8 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 21. 26. 28. 30. 31. 30. 28. 26. 24. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 3. 1. -1. -4. -8. -12. -16. -19. -26. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 7. 10. 14. 13. 12. 10. 6. 0. -4. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 22. 29. 32. 28. 24. 18. 10. -0. -9. -18. -27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.7 113.9 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP952023 INVEST 09/18/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.82 7.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.49 3.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 69.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.83 -5.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.41 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.30 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.17 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.87 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.0% 14.0% 0.0% 0.0% 17.2% 16.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 3.2% 1.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.9% 0.6% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 6.8% 5.1% 0.2% 0.0% 6.0% 5.5% 0.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 6.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 3.0% 4.0% 11.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952023 INVEST 09/18/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##