* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NIGEL AL152023 09/19/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 78 80 83 85 85 82 77 73 65 64 68 75 80 75 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 78 80 83 85 85 82 77 73 65 64 68 75 80 75 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 78 80 82 84 84 81 75 66 53 44 43 46 46 44 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 8 5 6 6 12 11 21 36 59 69 58 47 32 26 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -2 0 5 0 3 7 12 10 0 0 1 -5 -3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 75 86 134 164 193 229 223 229 240 246 254 259 242 230 227 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 27.7 28.2 28.2 28.1 27.7 27.6 24.8 24.4 19.0 16.3 15.4 13.8 12.9 12.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 133 140 140 139 134 135 109 107 82 76 74 70 64 61 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.6 -50.6 -50.2 -50.1 -50.1 -49.8 -49.7 -48.9 -49.0 -50.3 -51.2 -50.6 -47.6 -46.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.8 0.9 2.3 2.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 7 4 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 56 54 55 54 54 46 39 35 46 48 48 57 71 74 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 29 30 29 31 32 32 31 30 31 27 24 24 26 28 26 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -16 -29 -40 -39 -51 -24 49 91 162 160 150 162 213 254 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 10 -6 10 33 31 47 70 83 106 89 74 71 80 89 67 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 -1 -2 1 3 -1 1 10 99 168 164 127 69 58 28 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1512 1546 1587 1657 1584 1324 1032 845 1083 1531 1092 646 587 434 435 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.2 29.1 29.9 30.9 31.9 34.6 37.4 40.4 43.4 46.2 49.5 53.5 57.9 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 52.4 53.0 53.7 54.2 54.7 54.2 51.9 47.1 40.0 32.6 25.3 19.8 16.4 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 11 12 15 20 27 30 30 27 25 17 5 1 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 10 14 13 10 11 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -7. -14. -21. -29. -34. -39. -41. -42. -41. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 14. 21. 28. 37. 41. 42. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -9. -14. -15. -13. -10. -14. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 4. 8. 9. 10. 9. 7. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 10. 10. 7. 2. -2. -10. -11. -7. 0. 5. -0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 28.2 52.4 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152023 NIGEL 09/19/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.78 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.08 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.78 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.37 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.7 27.0 to 144.1 0.15 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.21 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 526.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.38 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.2 109.3 to 0.0 0.95 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.6% 16.0% 11.5% 9.8% 8.0% 11.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.0% 10.1% 7.3% 4.2% 1.9% 3.8% 1.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 6.0% 3.7% 3.4% 0.8% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.5% 9.9% 7.4% 4.9% 3.3% 5.2% 0.5% 0.0% DTOPS: 7.0% 22.0% 14.0% 8.0% 2.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152023 NIGEL 09/19/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152023 NIGEL 09/19/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 7( 12) 10( 20) 10( 28) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 78 80 83 85 85 82 77 73 65 64 68 75 80 75 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 75 74 76 79 81 81 78 73 69 61 60 64 71 76 71 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 75 72 71 74 76 76 73 68 64 56 55 59 66 71 66 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 67 67 64 59 55 47 46 50 57 62 57 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT