* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952023 09/19/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 24 24 25 26 25 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 24 24 25 26 25 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 24 22 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 7 5 6 7 14 21 29 39 50 55 51 52 51 46 39 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 2 4 5 0 3 9 9 2 0 0 -7 -6 -4 0 1 SHEAR DIR 46 32 339 290 268 247 217 223 226 231 226 229 224 227 238 259 276 SST (C) 28.4 28.6 28.8 28.8 27.9 27.3 25.8 25.3 24.8 23.1 22.5 21.8 21.1 20.6 27.9 30.6 30.4 POT. INT. (KT) 149 151 154 154 144 137 122 116 112 94 88 81 74 69 145 172 170 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.0 -52.1 -51.9 -51.7 -52.0 -51.7 -52.2 -52.0 -52.9 -52.8 -53.8 -54.0 -54.8 -55.5 -56.2 -56.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 3 3 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 700-500 MB RH 73 73 75 74 74 72 68 62 55 48 42 34 27 25 21 19 21 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 41 41 41 37 30 44 40 27 1 -5 -13 -19 -42 -33 11 4 200 MB DIV 39 50 58 64 84 76 50 65 66 37 14 34 -1 10 13 6 -35 700-850 TADV 0 3 2 4 8 8 11 12 20 29 17 8 -21 -21 -11 -1 -5 LAND (KM) 1207 1255 1306 1360 1380 1446 1496 1498 1412 1256 1045 767 485 126 -122 -329 -557 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.2 14.6 15.1 15.7 16.8 17.9 19.3 21.3 23.7 26.2 28.2 30.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 116.4 117.6 118.8 120.0 121.1 123.1 125.0 126.4 127.0 126.7 125.7 123.9 121.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 11 11 10 10 11 13 13 14 15 16 15 13 11 HEAT CONTENT 11 13 18 20 10 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 6 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 475 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 19. 22. 23. 22. 20. 16. 13. 12. 17. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. -1. -6. -11. -13. -17. -21. -29. -39. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. -11. -10. -11. -10. -10. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. -8. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 0. -3. -8. -13. -18. -24. -31. -37. -41. -41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.9 116.4 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP952023 INVEST 09/19/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.79 7.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.42 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 70.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.83 -5.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.48 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.42 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.12 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.2 49.8 to 0.0 0.98 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.80 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.0% 13.1% 0.0% 0.0% 15.0% 12.2% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 3.0% 1.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 6.3% 4.7% 0.1% 0.0% 5.2% 4.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952023 INVEST 09/19/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##