* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NIGEL AL152023 09/20/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 86 87 86 85 78 72 59 54 63 73 73 68 67 65 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 86 87 86 85 78 72 59 54 63 73 73 68 67 65 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 86 86 85 83 76 66 51 43 45 48 47 46 46 49 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 9 14 15 16 27 39 61 63 39 31 19 11 12 19 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 3 0 1 4 5 13 4 -3 3 2 -2 -3 -4 -4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 188 200 211 215 220 226 249 253 251 244 225 238 228 231 248 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 28.0 27.7 27.6 27.2 25.2 21.7 18.6 16.1 15.2 13.3 12.8 13.3 12.9 12.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 137 138 135 135 131 112 92 80 74 72 67 63 64 66 67 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.9 -50.4 -50.3 -50.0 -50.0 -49.9 -49.6 -49.9 -51.1 -52.1 -51.6 -48.6 -47.1 -47.9 -48.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.9 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.9 0.1 1.5 3.9 2.5 1.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 6 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 54 55 52 46 40 40 51 52 54 66 74 75 69 62 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 30 30 31 30 32 32 34 28 24 28 31 30 27 25 23 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -54 -63 -52 -49 -21 46 47 81 116 176 192 280 275 219 177 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 39 28 57 89 74 90 104 78 82 72 73 91 26 13 0 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 2 -2 -4 0 7 84 138 154 85 30 -9 -9 -3 -10 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1518 1383 1252 1092 926 785 1115 1601 1108 777 645 514 699 602 294 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.5 33.9 35.2 36.8 38.4 41.4 44.4 47.2 50.4 54.2 57.6 58.8 57.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 54.8 54.6 54.5 53.0 51.4 46.5 38.9 31.4 26.0 21.9 19.6 20.0 22.9 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 16 20 22 28 31 26 23 20 12 4 4 9 14 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 12 12 13 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 13 CX,CY: 0/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 495 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -7. -16. -27. -38. -48. -55. -59. -61. -59. -55. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -0. 6. 17. 29. 36. 42. 44. 44. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 2. -7. -13. -9. -6. -8. -14. -16. -20. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -3. -4. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 2. 5. 8. 9. 10. 8. 7. 6. 5. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 1. -0. -7. -13. -26. -31. -22. -12. -12. -17. -18. -20. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 32.5 54.8 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152023 NIGEL 09/20/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.54 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.80 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.62 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.53 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.2 27.0 to 144.1 0.05 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.40 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 635.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.27 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 18.7 109.3 to 0.0 0.83 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.0% 14.7% 10.6% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.7% 2.3% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 4.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.3% 5.7% 3.9% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152023 NIGEL 09/20/23 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152023 NIGEL 09/20/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 10( 19) 10( 27) 6( 31) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 86 87 86 85 78 72 59 54 63 73 73 68 67 65 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 85 84 85 84 83 76 70 57 52 61 71 71 66 65 63 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 85 82 81 80 79 72 66 53 48 57 67 67 62 61 59 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 74 67 61 48 43 52 62 62 57 56 54 DIS DIS NOW 85 76 70 67 66 59 53 40 35 44 54 54 49 48 46 DIS DIS IN 6HR 85 86 77 71 68 64 58 45 40 49 59 59 54 53 51 DIS DIS IN 12HR 85 86 87 78 72 68 62 49 44 53 63 63 58 57 55 DIS DIS