* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NIGEL AL152023 09/21/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 78 76 72 68 56 52 61 69 69 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 78 76 72 68 56 52 61 69 69 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 79 76 72 67 53 44 45 47 45 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 18 24 30 38 63 62 36 24 12 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 3 6 12 5 -6 0 -6 -5 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 206 212 220 239 247 253 259 250 214 187 196 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 25.8 25.1 24.6 22.2 18.4 16.1 14.7 13.6 13.5 13.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 117 112 109 94 81 74 70 65 62 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.9 -49.9 -49.9 -49.6 -49.3 -49.7 -51.3 -51.1 -48.9 -47.3 -46.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.6 1.4 0.5 2.2 1.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 41 37 34 36 51 51 58 77 80 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 32 30 32 32 34 31 27 31 36 33 30 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -28 5 45 61 84 110 163 261 308 316 287 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 73 81 85 69 88 102 96 103 76 60 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -11 -5 -5 28 72 146 197 134 26 -13 -20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 945 837 803 920 1109 1591 998 835 788 744 772 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 38.2 39.7 41.2 42.7 44.2 47.1 50.9 54.7 56.7 57.1 56.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 51.7 49.1 46.5 42.8 39.1 31.0 24.6 22.8 23.9 23.9 22.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 23 25 28 31 31 30 23 15 6 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 20 CX,CY: 14/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -6. -12. -22. -32. -43. -52. -57. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -9. -0. 10. 22. 32. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. 1. -2. -7. -4. 1. -3. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 1. 4. 10. 13. 12. 10. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -8. -12. -24. -28. -19. -11. -11. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 38.2 51.7 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152023 NIGEL 09/21/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 39.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.16 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.70 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.53 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 21.9 27.0 to 144.1 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.50 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 626.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.28 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 54.9 109.3 to 0.0 0.50 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152023 NIGEL 09/21/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152023 NIGEL 09/21/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 5( 12) 3( 14) 0( 14) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 78 76 72 68 56 52 61 69 69 68 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 80 79 77 73 69 57 53 62 70 70 69 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 80 77 76 72 68 56 52 61 69 69 68 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 66 54 50 59 67 67 66 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT