* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP912023 09/21/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 21 20 20 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 21 20 20 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 24 24 22 21 19 18 17 17 17 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 19 23 23 23 20 17 15 17 27 32 27 21 20 26 32 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -1 -3 -6 -6 -1 0 -5 -10 -3 4 4 -1 -5 -4 SHEAR DIR 285 305 322 334 337 329 306 273 256 257 277 294 293 269 274 279 285 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.3 26.7 26.3 26.4 26.8 26.7 27.2 27.9 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 145 143 142 141 140 138 137 136 134 128 123 126 131 131 137 144 145 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.6 -51.6 -51.7 -51.9 -52.1 -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 -52.3 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.2 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 5 6 6 7 8 700-500 MB RH 55 56 58 60 61 63 57 52 47 41 36 35 33 34 36 37 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 6 7 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -4 3 -5 -1 3 -7 -3 -6 -24 -32 -31 -29 -8 -12 -18 -23 200 MB DIV -35 -17 -22 -38 -25 -2 7 8 -24 -33 -33 -23 -24 -43 -30 -21 -7 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 0 0 0 1 -1 0 1 4 0 3 6 4 4 6 LAND (KM) 1606 1538 1493 1463 1430 1382 1336 1290 1209 1120 1042 964 882 800 746 737 806 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.3 12.3 12.2 12.3 12.5 12.8 13.1 13.4 14.1 14.5 14.6 14.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 141.7 142.5 143.0 143.4 143.7 144.1 144.4 144.7 145.4 145.9 146.5 147.3 148.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 6 4 3 3 2 2 3 4 4 3 5 9 11 11 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 10 9 5 3 4 1 4 11 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 727 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 7. 14. 20. 25. 29. 32. 33. 35. 36. 35. 34. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -7. -11. -15. -19. -24. -28. -29. -27. -24. -23. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -8. -7. -6. -4. -3. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -3. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. -8. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -7. -12. -15. -18. -21. -23. -20. -15. -10. -6. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.4 141.7 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP912023 INVEST 09/21/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.0 36.9 to 148.5 0.72 2.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 0.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.12 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 105.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.79 -1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -27.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.03 0.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.33 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.05 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 35.7 49.8 to 0.0 0.28 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.19 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 3.5% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.2% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP912023 INVEST 09/21/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##