* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIXTEEN AL162023 09/22/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 44 50 55 59 58 46 36 29 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 39 44 50 55 59 43 33 30 31 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 41 42 41 32 29 29 32 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 35 40 34 40 42 34 40 34 37 43 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 3 -2 -6 -3 -7 -2 1 -7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 204 204 191 181 186 190 205 227 238 262 265 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.2 28.5 28.7 29.0 27.8 26.5 24.4 22.9 21.2 20.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 140 143 145 151 133 118 99 90 81 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.2 -54.1 -53.9 -54.0 -54.2 -54.6 -55.3 -55.6 -55.3 -55.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 -0.1 0.4 0.2 0.5 1.6 1.1 1.5 0.2 0.0 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 64 61 62 60 57 46 50 52 44 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 20 23 26 28 29 25 18 13 11 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 31 60 81 84 114 85 47 36 59 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 105 87 122 115 93 48 41 -59 22 8 -21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 26 19 15 13 25 17 15 4 -17 -35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 532 448 353 290 221 46 -64 -28 -31 16 100 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.5 30.6 31.7 32.3 32.9 34.4 36.4 37.7 39.2 39.8 39.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 75.3 75.3 75.3 75.5 75.7 76.3 76.6 76.0 75.1 74.0 73.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 11 9 6 7 9 9 8 6 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 34 27 32 32 39 15 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 6 CX,CY: 3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -3. -5. -6. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 6. 9. 10. 8. -1. -7. -13. -16. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 15. 20. 24. 23. 11. 1. -6. -13. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 29.5 75.3 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162023 SIXTEEN 09/22/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 47.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.20 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.33 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.74 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.4 27.0 to 144.1 0.52 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 104.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.62 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 97.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.83 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 59.3 109.3 to 0.0 0.46 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 5.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162023 SIXTEEN 09/22/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162023 SIXTEEN 09/22/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 39 44 50 55 59 43 33 30 31 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 39 45 50 54 38 28 25 26 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 37 42 46 30 20 17 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 30 34 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT