* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OPHELIA AL162023 09/22/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 60 60 56 47 37 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 58 60 49 41 31 29 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 59 60 49 41 31 29 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 33 37 37 31 27 36 29 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 0 -7 -4 -3 -7 -2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 181 184 187 193 195 245 245 253 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 28.9 27.3 26.7 27.3 25.3 24.6 24.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 149 127 120 127 106 100 102 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.5 -54.3 -54.3 -54.5 -55.1 -55.7 -55.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.4 1.6 0.1 0.4 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 58 56 54 51 47 52 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 29 31 31 30 25 19 14 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 70 80 83 96 94 32 27 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 140 89 52 42 37 -25 14 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 16 21 26 20 10 21 14 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 231 143 49 -22 -64 -122 -160 -166 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.7 33.5 34.3 35.2 36.1 37.9 39.1 40.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 76.0 76.3 76.7 76.8 77.0 77.1 76.9 76.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 8 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 36 32 8 4 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 11 CX,CY: -2/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. -6. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. -0. -3. -10. -19. -27. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 5. 1. -8. -18. -28. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 32.7 76.0 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162023 OPHELIA 09/22/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 5.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 39.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.14 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.10 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.86 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.71 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.2 27.0 to 144.1 0.27 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.47 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 180.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.74 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 72.6 109.3 to 0.0 0.34 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 16.7% 11.6% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 5.9% 4.0% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162023 OPHELIA 09/22/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162023 OPHELIA 09/22/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 58 60 49 41 31 29 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 56 45 37 27 25 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 40 32 22 20 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 37 27 25 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT