* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PHILIPPE AL172023 09/24/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 47 48 48 48 53 58 58 60 62 63 63 65 67 69 V (KT) LAND 45 46 47 47 48 48 48 53 58 58 60 62 63 63 65 67 69 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 45 45 45 45 46 47 49 50 50 50 49 50 53 58 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 15 16 15 12 14 18 23 18 23 29 25 27 22 19 15 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 10 7 4 6 14 3 0 2 6 0 5 0 1 -2 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 251 251 259 262 232 228 248 260 255 253 245 243 238 245 254 270 253 SST (C) 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.1 29.0 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 153 151 149 149 150 155 152 154 155 154 155 154 155 155 150 147 145 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -51.9 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -52.1 -52.4 -52.0 -52.1 -52.0 -52.2 -52.3 -52.7 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.6 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.7 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 57 59 62 65 65 66 66 66 62 59 57 55 53 49 48 48 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 16 17 16 17 17 19 21 23 23 25 26 27 27 28 30 31 850 MB ENV VOR 28 28 22 26 22 20 31 41 43 34 34 41 48 65 99 110 16 200 MB DIV 40 54 67 60 60 58 20 20 37 41 26 31 15 17 18 8 -5 700-850 TADV 4 2 -1 -3 -2 -2 3 5 2 -3 6 1 2 2 3 6 0 LAND (KM) 1714 1648 1585 1540 1463 1268 1154 1102 967 946 988 1002 977 1007 1090 1153 1177 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.8 17.0 17.2 17.4 18.0 18.7 19.7 20.9 22.2 23.4 24.1 24.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 42.0 43.2 44.4 45.4 46.5 48.7 50.3 51.5 53.2 54.1 54.5 55.0 55.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 11 10 11 10 8 9 9 7 5 3 3 3 4 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 51 47 42 39 36 74 41 37 48 57 48 47 56 53 39 31 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 10. 15. 19. 23. 26. 28. 28. 28. 25. 22. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -4. -7. -10. -14. -16. -18. -18. -17. -16. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. 0. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 8. 13. 13. 15. 17. 18. 18. 20. 22. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 16.6 42.0 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172023 PHILIPPE 09/24/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.40 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.27 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.60 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.5 27.0 to 144.1 0.62 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.40 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 212.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.71 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.7% 14.6% 9.6% 8.2% 5.8% 9.8% 10.0% 11.9% Logistic: 1.4% 2.9% 1.0% 0.8% 0.5% 2.3% 2.1% 1.8% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% Consensus: 2.0% 6.1% 3.6% 3.0% 2.1% 4.1% 4.1% 4.7% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172023 PHILIPPE 09/24/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172023 PHILIPPE 09/24/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 47 47 48 48 48 53 58 58 60 62 63 63 65 67 69 18HR AGO 45 44 45 45 46 46 46 51 56 56 58 60 61 61 63 65 67 12HR AGO 45 42 41 41 42 42 42 47 52 52 54 56 57 57 59 61 63 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 36 36 36 41 46 46 48 50 51 51 53 55 57 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT