* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PHILIPPE AL172023 09/27/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 49 49 50 52 52 57 62 67 74 78 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 47 49 49 50 52 52 57 62 67 74 78 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 47 48 48 49 49 50 53 57 62 68 71 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 14 12 9 6 3 6 4 6 5 13 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 5 5 5 10 7 2 4 8 2 7 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 205 197 204 223 230 201 238 210 213 239 270 273 282 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.0 29.8 30.0 29.7 29.9 30.1 30.3 30.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 158 156 156 156 150 165 169 163 165 169 169 170 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.8 -52.1 -52.2 -52.1 -51.9 -52.3 -52.2 -52.4 -52.0 -52.1 -51.9 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 64 60 58 59 56 54 54 50 49 50 53 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 17 15 15 14 13 13 11 11 11 10 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 59 61 58 43 45 50 42 42 28 25 27 40 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 86 79 54 34 15 2 -3 12 24 -37 -18 5 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 2 0 -2 0 0 -3 -1 -1 -1 -5 -2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 823 764 715 653 585 459 284 140 46 60 27 5 -16 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.6 17.9 18.3 18.6 18.9 18.7 18.7 18.5 18.3 18.1 18.1 18.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 53.0 54.0 54.9 55.6 56.3 57.6 59.3 61.0 62.6 63.8 64.6 65.7 67.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 8 8 7 7 8 8 7 5 4 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 50 60 64 63 59 48 70 77 72 84 101 98 91 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 6. 10. 15. 20. 25. 29. 33. 35. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 7. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -13. -15. -17. -19. -20. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 4. 5. 7. 7. 12. 17. 22. 29. 33. 34. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 17.2 53.0 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172023 PHILIPPE 09/27/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.54 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 59.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.37 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.38 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.60 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 3.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.9 27.0 to 144.1 0.64 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.39 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 201.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.72 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.1 109.3 to 0.0 0.95 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.7% Logistic: 1.9% 3.6% 1.9% 2.6% 0.8% 6.5% 4.9% 4.3% Bayesian: 3.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 1.8% 3.8% Consensus: 1.7% 6.6% 0.7% 0.9% 0.3% 2.5% 2.2% 7.9% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172023 PHILIPPE 09/27/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172023 PHILIPPE 09/27/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 47 49 49 50 52 52 57 62 67 74 78 60 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 46 46 47 49 49 54 59 64 71 75 57 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 41 42 44 44 49 54 59 66 70 52 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 36 38 38 43 48 53 60 64 46 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT