* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PHILIPPE AL172023 09/27/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 49 50 51 54 57 64 72 81 86 93 97 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 48 49 50 51 54 57 64 72 81 86 77 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 47 48 48 49 52 56 62 70 79 85 74 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 10 8 5 4 6 2 5 8 17 19 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 3 5 7 7 5 5 2 -4 0 -2 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 205 210 223 239 199 244 243 240 257 254 278 267 270 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 30.0 29.9 29.7 30.0 30.2 30.3 30.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 156 156 154 154 168 166 163 168 169 169 170 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.8 -52.1 -52.2 -51.9 -51.9 -51.9 -51.9 -51.8 -51.5 -51.6 -51.5 -51.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 64 62 59 58 53 53 51 48 46 46 49 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 15 15 14 14 14 15 17 19 19 21 23 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 65 66 52 44 48 48 46 53 52 65 81 57 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 88 66 31 2 21 11 7 31 7 -33 -19 -29 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 1 1 2 3 -1 0 0 3 -2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 781 742 694 618 545 370 224 129 32 48 16 -15 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.8 18.1 18.4 18.7 18.9 18.8 18.7 18.4 18.2 18.2 18.1 17.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 53.7 54.5 55.2 55.9 56.7 58.5 60.0 61.2 62.7 64.0 65.0 66.1 67.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 7 8 8 8 6 6 7 6 5 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 57 63 64 62 55 55 77 77 72 89 101 95 90 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 6. 10. 15. 20. 25. 29. 33. 35. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 9. 6. 4. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -4. -5. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 6. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 5. 6. 9. 12. 19. 27. 36. 41. 48. 52. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 17.5 53.7 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172023 PHILIPPE 09/27/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.59 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 60.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.37 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.60 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.03 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.3 27.0 to 144.1 0.63 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.33 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 196.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.72 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.6 109.3 to 0.0 0.99 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.0% 11.5% 9.4% 7.1% 11.5% 14.1% 17.1% Logistic: 2.0% 3.7% 2.0% 2.2% 0.6% 4.5% 6.3% 6.3% Bayesian: 2.7% 1.0% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.9% 6.1% 2.8% Consensus: 1.6% 7.2% 4.8% 3.9% 2.6% 5.6% 8.8% 8.8% DTOPS: 3.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172023 PHILIPPE 09/27/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172023 PHILIPPE 09/27/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 48 49 50 51 54 57 64 72 81 86 77 80 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 45 46 47 50 53 60 68 77 82 73 76 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 42 43 46 49 56 64 73 78 69 72 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 36 39 42 49 57 66 71 62 65 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT