* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912023 09/28/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 41 43 42 38 30 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 41 43 42 38 30 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 32 32 31 28 24 20 18 16 16 17 18 20 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 24 27 28 27 32 34 30 29 31 26 18 12 16 22 18 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 -1 -1 0 -1 3 6 9 1 0 0 1 -1 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 334 334 330 327 319 317 318 323 317 311 287 267 224 175 190 199 216 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.9 29.1 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 146 146 146 147 150 150 149 149 152 160 158 154 155 158 160 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -52.7 -52.8 -51.7 -52.5 -51.8 -51.9 -51.5 -51.3 -50.8 -50.9 -50.8 -50.8 -50.8 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.3 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 6 5 6 7 8 8 8 8 7 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 83 82 80 77 76 76 76 73 67 67 68 68 65 66 64 62 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 15 15 17 19 20 20 20 17 14 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -12 -20 -15 -10 26 34 52 84 96 103 86 96 119 141 148 149 200 MB DIV 116 137 183 175 127 125 80 82 46 63 45 35 51 55 61 25 -28 700-850 TADV 1 0 -2 1 2 9 4 1 -21 -18 -14 -3 -2 -5 -5 -5 -12 LAND (KM) 1456 1493 1537 1527 1500 1416 1364 1268 1081 935 823 743 740 791 828 882 973 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 44.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 8 8 6 6 7 8 7 7 10 8 5 3 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 42 35 33 36 38 46 47 44 35 53 73 66 68 42 38 35 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 11 CX,CY: -3/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 678 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 11. 18. 24. 30. 34. 37. 40. 40. 38. 37. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -7. -15. -23. -32. -38. -38. -37. -36. -34. -34. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 1. -4. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. -0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 13. 12. 8. -0. -11. -21. -20. -17. -15. -13. -12. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.6 44.5 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912023 INVEST 09/28/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 33.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.29 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.23 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.33 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.1 27.0 to 144.1 0.70 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 147.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.81 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 43.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.88 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.2% 15.6% 10.1% 7.2% 4.6% 8.4% 7.6% 0.0% Logistic: 3.1% 11.8% 2.8% 1.1% 0.8% 1.6% 1.6% 1.5% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 9.4% 4.4% 2.8% 1.8% 3.3% 3.1% 0.5% DTOPS: 1.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912023 INVEST 09/28/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912023 INVEST 09/28/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 38 41 43 42 38 30 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 32 35 38 40 39 35 27 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 32 34 33 29 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 25 24 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT