* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PHILIPPE AL172023 09/28/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 40 41 44 50 57 66 72 79 83 85 91 90 93 92 92 V (KT) LAND 40 40 40 41 44 50 57 66 72 79 83 85 91 90 93 92 92 V (KT) LGEM 40 39 38 39 40 44 49 55 63 71 77 81 84 85 85 87 86 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 8 11 9 13 9 14 20 16 16 13 7 7 2 8 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 6 2 2 2 0 1 -5 -1 5 3 8 10 8 10 5 4 SHEAR DIR 235 246 266 279 295 299 311 326 336 326 329 348 321 283 13 279 286 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.4 29.3 29.0 28.6 28.4 29.0 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 150 150 151 155 155 156 158 159 156 155 150 144 141 152 152 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.5 -51.6 -51.7 -51.4 -51.5 -51.2 -51.1 -51.0 -50.9 -50.4 -50.7 -50.3 -50.6 -50.2 -50.5 -50.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.2 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 10 10 10 11 11 12 11 11 10 10 8 8 7 6 700-500 MB RH 56 58 54 54 54 49 48 50 52 57 59 64 66 68 70 71 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 17 16 16 17 19 21 23 24 27 29 29 33 33 35 36 38 850 MB ENV VOR 66 75 64 62 69 78 82 93 98 91 80 64 51 52 58 64 89 200 MB DIV 48 20 -9 -3 5 9 5 -26 21 19 32 18 64 22 63 55 89 700-850 TADV 2 -2 -2 -2 -1 -3 -1 0 0 4 11 11 15 13 12 10 25 LAND (KM) 725 699 673 647 620 552 482 447 411 372 343 364 457 565 677 853 1085 LAT (DEG N) 18.9 18.9 18.9 18.9 18.8 18.5 18.0 17.7 17.4 17.6 18.4 19.5 21.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 55.0 55.3 55.5 55.8 56.0 56.6 57.2 57.5 57.8 58.2 58.6 58.9 59.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 2 2 3 5 7 7 6 8 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 62 60 58 57 57 56 53 53 56 58 61 58 52 48 30 39 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 15. 21. 26. 30. 33. 35. 35. 32. 31. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 6. 8. 7. 12. 11. 13. 13. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 1. 4. 10. 17. 26. 32. 39. 43. 45. 51. 50. 53. 52. 52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 18.9 55.0 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172023 PHILIPPE 09/28/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.62 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 58.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.36 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.47 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.27 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.2 27.0 to 144.1 0.57 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 228.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.69 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.8 109.3 to 0.0 0.98 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.1% 13.9% 9.4% 8.2% 6.1% 10.4% 12.7% 16.2% Logistic: 1.7% 4.7% 2.8% 2.0% 0.7% 3.4% 5.1% 7.9% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% Consensus: 1.7% 6.3% 4.1% 3.4% 2.3% 4.6% 6.0% 8.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172023 PHILIPPE 09/28/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172023 PHILIPPE 09/28/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 40 40 41 44 50 57 66 72 79 83 85 91 90 93 92 92 18HR AGO 40 39 39 40 43 49 56 65 71 78 82 84 90 89 92 91 91 12HR AGO 40 37 36 37 40 46 53 62 68 75 79 81 87 86 89 88 88 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 33 39 46 55 61 68 72 74 80 79 82 81 81 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT