* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PHILIPPE AL172023 10/01/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 45 44 42 41 41 42 43 46 50 56 59 61 63 58 53 V (KT) LAND 45 45 45 44 42 41 41 42 43 46 50 56 59 61 63 58 53 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 44 44 42 40 38 37 36 38 40 44 46 47 45 40 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 20 24 29 28 26 26 14 21 16 19 16 26 29 35 44 56 60 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 2 6 2 7 4 2 1 0 2 0 2 6 -6 -5 SHEAR DIR 293 308 317 311 310 311 286 284 275 278 233 241 233 253 256 264 269 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.7 29.5 28.7 29.0 29.1 29.2 28.0 27.3 26.3 26.1 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 164 164 165 164 162 159 163 159 147 152 154 156 137 126 116 116 122 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -51.2 -51.4 -51.2 -51.6 -51.8 -51.6 -51.5 -51.3 -51.7 -51.7 -52.0 -51.8 -52.0 -51.9 -52.6 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 6 6 5 4 2 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 59 61 63 64 65 65 66 67 73 73 71 69 63 60 58 47 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 16 16 14 14 15 16 16 18 20 23 27 31 35 33 31 850 MB ENV VOR 67 70 59 52 48 25 30 24 31 40 59 35 27 18 41 24 4 200 MB DIV 64 39 26 33 15 -1 44 39 19 40 86 79 72 94 96 67 12 700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 2 -2 -5 -3 0 6 4 9 1 4 20 19 8 -2 LAND (KM) 439 425 412 401 377 313 285 389 556 775 1043 1294 1530 1642 1567 1445 1336 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.3 16.3 16.7 17.0 17.9 19.2 20.7 22.5 24.6 26.8 28.7 30.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 56.8 57.0 57.3 57.7 58.1 58.8 59.6 59.9 60.1 59.8 58.7 57.3 55.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 4 5 6 6 8 8 10 11 12 11 10 7 8 13 15 HEAT CONTENT 54 54 55 56 58 64 73 57 40 33 32 37 18 6 1 0 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):225/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 20. 23. 25. 26. 26. 23. 19. 16. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -12. -15. -18. -19. -19. -19. -19. -19. -19. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -4. -2. -1. 4. 7. 13. 17. 13. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 1. 5. 11. 14. 16. 18. 13. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 16.2 56.8 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172023 PHILIPPE 10/01/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 35.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.25 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 55.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.34 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.32 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.60 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.74 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.9 27.0 to 144.1 0.67 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.30 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 177.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.74 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 14.0% 9.2% 7.4% 4.9% 8.5% 10.2% 13.7% Logistic: 2.0% 2.4% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.9% 1.8% 3.1% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% Consensus: 2.0% 5.7% 3.4% 2.6% 1.7% 3.1% 4.0% 5.7% DTOPS: 2.0% 4.0% 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172023 PHILIPPE 10/01/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172023 PHILIPPE 10/01/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 45 45 44 42 41 41 42 43 46 50 56 59 61 63 58 53 18HR AGO 45 44 44 43 41 40 40 41 42 45 49 55 58 60 62 57 52 12HR AGO 45 42 41 40 38 37 37 38 39 42 46 52 55 57 59 54 49 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 33 32 32 33 34 37 41 47 50 52 54 49 44 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT