* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PHILIPPE AL172023 10/01/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 42 41 39 37 38 39 43 45 47 50 53 55 56 56 51 V (KT) LAND 45 44 42 41 39 37 38 39 43 45 47 50 53 55 56 56 51 V (KT) LGEM 45 44 43 41 39 36 34 33 34 35 37 39 42 43 42 38 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 31 30 28 28 19 15 14 21 12 21 21 28 31 42 42 49 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 0 0 4 6 5 1 -1 2 0 2 8 7 5 -2 SHEAR DIR 299 302 310 310 306 311 284 281 275 261 241 234 244 256 262 261 288 SST (C) 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.8 30.0 29.7 29.5 28.9 28.0 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.2 26.6 26.2 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 166 164 163 162 164 168 162 159 150 136 150 152 150 139 119 115 108 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.1 -51.2 -51.5 -51.6 -51.5 -51.8 -51.4 -51.5 -51.4 -51.8 -51.6 -52.1 -51.3 -51.6 -52.2 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 7 7 6 5 3 2 1 2 2 700-500 MB RH 59 59 61 61 63 64 66 68 73 76 74 74 68 67 65 60 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 14 15 14 13 13 13 15 16 18 19 22 27 30 31 28 850 MB ENV VOR 62 44 36 31 28 18 15 8 22 39 52 48 42 50 52 60 58 200 MB DIV 31 10 -3 7 4 38 23 24 26 65 86 112 85 113 104 72 39 700-850 TADV -2 -3 0 -3 -6 -1 -3 2 -1 0 1 5 15 45 61 47 27 LAND (KM) 400 372 338 299 253 185 177 278 441 645 836 1070 1313 1526 1542 1484 1404 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.6 16.8 17.1 17.4 18.2 19.1 20.3 22.0 23.9 25.7 27.6 29.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 57.5 58.0 58.4 58.8 59.3 60.1 61.0 61.4 61.5 61.4 61.2 60.2 58.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 8 9 9 10 11 11 9 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 57 59 63 67 77 89 77 71 47 23 30 26 37 17 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 650 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 35.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 20. 23. 26. 27. 27. 24. 20. 16. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -12. -16. -18. -20. -20. -20. -20. -19. -19. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. -3. 0. 6. 10. 10. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -7. -6. -2. -0. 2. 5. 8. 10. 11. 11. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 16.3 57.5 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172023 PHILIPPE 10/01/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 37.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.19 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 64.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.40 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 35.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.03 0.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.60 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.19 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.9 27.0 to 144.1 0.68 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.19 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 187.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.73 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 8.6% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 6.8% 7.9% 11.7% Logistic: 0.8% 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.7% 1.9% 3.5% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% Consensus: 0.8% 3.2% 2.0% 0.1% 0.0% 2.5% 3.3% 5.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172023 PHILIPPE 10/01/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172023 PHILIPPE 10/01/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 44 42 41 39 37 38 39 43 45 47 50 53 55 56 56 51 18HR AGO 45 44 42 41 39 37 38 39 43 45 47 50 53 55 56 56 51 12HR AGO 45 42 41 40 38 36 37 38 42 44 46 49 52 54 55 55 50 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 33 31 32 33 37 39 41 44 47 49 50 50 45 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT