* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PHILIPPE AL172023 10/02/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 44 44 44 46 50 55 59 64 69 74 70 65 64 59 61 V (KT) LAND 45 44 44 44 44 46 50 55 59 64 69 74 70 65 64 59 61 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 45 45 44 44 44 46 49 54 58 59 54 47 42 40 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 21 16 16 18 11 16 14 20 19 26 29 39 33 30 28 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 6 9 6 6 4 1 5 2 4 3 4 3 0 3 3 SHEAR DIR 306 299 303 301 303 274 286 247 241 228 249 263 273 259 257 276 290 SST (C) 29.8 30.0 30.1 29.8 29.6 29.3 29.4 28.2 28.2 28.4 28.8 28.6 28.1 27.7 27.0 26.5 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 164 168 170 164 160 156 158 139 139 143 149 144 137 131 123 117 123 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.7 -51.4 -51.4 -51.6 -51.2 -51.5 -51.3 -51.7 -51.5 -51.9 -51.5 -51.8 -51.1 -51.9 -53.0 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.9 2.0 0.9 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 6 4 3 2 1 2 3 5 5 700-500 MB RH 64 63 62 64 65 70 74 77 79 75 64 62 58 58 59 55 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 15 14 14 15 16 18 21 25 29 33 34 34 35 34 35 850 MB ENV VOR 33 30 27 32 26 29 31 42 51 59 61 66 59 73 88 118 44 200 MB DIV 10 14 41 47 33 35 38 43 84 161 76 60 38 87 89 57 -24 700-850 TADV -3 -3 3 -1 -3 4 3 11 -2 4 17 28 33 30 13 0 12 LAND (KM) 220 166 118 91 104 200 337 535 717 933 1177 1358 1474 1603 1604 1614 1620 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.2 17.4 18.0 18.5 19.7 21.2 23.1 24.8 26.6 28.5 29.8 30.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 59.6 60.1 60.6 61.0 61.3 61.8 62.1 62.1 61.9 61.1 59.8 58.5 57.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 6 6 7 9 9 9 10 10 7 7 7 7 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 80 91 96 88 78 80 69 30 21 30 23 30 18 13 4 1 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 37.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 9. 14. 17. 20. 21. 22. 21. 18. 14. 11. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 2. 5. 9. 15. 21. 20. 19. 21. 16. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 5. 10. 14. 19. 24. 29. 25. 20. 19. 14. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 16.9 59.6 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172023 PHILIPPE 10/02/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 32.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.33 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 86.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.54 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 37.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.60 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.02 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.2 27.0 to 144.1 0.69 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.27 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 153.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.77 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 10.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.9% 9.4% 13.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 1.5% 2.5% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% Consensus: 0.3% 3.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 2.8% 3.7% 5.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172023 PHILIPPE 10/02/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172023 PHILIPPE 10/02/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 44 44 44 44 46 50 55 59 64 69 74 70 65 64 59 61 18HR AGO 45 44 44 44 44 46 50 55 59 64 69 74 70 65 64 59 61 12HR AGO 45 42 41 41 41 43 47 52 56 61 66 71 67 62 61 56 58 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 35 37 41 46 50 55 60 65 61 56 55 50 52 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT