* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PHILIPPE AL172023 10/03/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 43 43 44 44 49 51 55 60 58 61 61 58 55 53 54 V (KT) LAND 45 44 43 43 44 44 49 51 55 60 58 61 61 58 55 53 54 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 44 44 43 43 45 47 50 51 49 44 39 35 33 31 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 21 22 23 15 14 12 17 20 31 42 45 36 24 10 9 13 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 0 0 5 4 0 3 1 0 -2 -1 2 3 6 4 5 SHEAR DIR 311 309 307 301 273 271 223 241 224 246 256 264 270 255 250 218 212 SST (C) 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.1 28.8 29.0 28.9 27.6 27.1 26.4 26.1 26.3 25.0 20.7 POT. INT. (KT) 166 164 160 160 161 161 153 148 152 151 132 126 118 115 117 105 81 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.7 -51.8 -51.5 -51.4 -51.5 -51.5 -51.9 -52.1 -52.0 -52.5 -53.0 -53.4 -54.6 -54.7 -55.8 -56.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 6 3 3 2 3 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 61 62 63 66 69 71 77 79 76 69 57 48 46 42 36 34 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 11 11 12 12 12 14 16 19 24 24 26 26 26 25 23 22 850 MB ENV VOR 24 13 10 12 23 14 36 36 70 83 89 74 72 82 62 32 -43 200 MB DIV 27 9 -1 29 64 48 59 58 107 85 27 44 56 90 -4 -10 26 700-850 TADV -3 -1 1 6 2 -3 3 -2 7 28 41 81 60 50 20 6 2 LAND (KM) 14 56 42 82 146 288 453 661 907 1169 1331 1157 1007 904 814 692 451 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 18.0 18.4 19.0 19.6 21.2 22.8 24.7 26.9 29.2 31.6 33.8 35.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 62.0 62.3 62.6 62.8 63.0 63.4 63.8 64.1 63.7 62.9 61.9 60.8 59.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 6 6 7 8 9 10 12 12 12 11 10 10 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 77 72 70 73 81 68 39 31 33 26 12 9 2 2 3 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 689 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 16. 18. 19. 18. 16. 12. 8. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -4. -6. -11. -15. -15. -14. -11. -9. -6. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -0. 1. 4. 11. 11. 13. 12. 10. 7. 4. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 4. 7. 10. 15. 13. 16. 16. 13. 10. 8. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 17.6 62.0 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172023 PHILIPPE 10/03/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.38 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 74.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.46 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.24 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.60 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.1 27.0 to 144.1 0.66 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.26 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 165.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.76 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.2% 12.4% 8.2% 7.4% 4.7% 9.1% 11.0% 13.3% Logistic: 0.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 1.1% 1.4% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.9% 4.4% 2.8% 2.5% 1.6% 3.2% 4.0% 4.9% DTOPS: 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172023 PHILIPPE 10/03/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172023 PHILIPPE 10/03/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 44 43 43 44 44 49 51 55 60 58 61 61 58 55 53 54 18HR AGO 45 44 43 43 44 44 49 51 55 60 58 61 61 58 55 53 54 12HR AGO 45 42 41 41 42 42 47 49 53 58 56 59 59 56 53 51 52 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 36 36 41 43 47 52 50 53 53 50 47 45 46 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT