* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LIDIA EP152023 10/04/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 45 45 46 47 53 58 63 61 61 59 57 56 58 62 65 V (KT) LAND 45 45 45 45 46 47 53 58 63 61 61 59 57 56 58 62 65 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 47 47 47 48 50 53 57 58 57 53 49 49 55 64 71 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 28 23 18 18 19 18 17 20 25 24 20 9 2 1 8 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -4 -5 -5 -1 -2 -2 -4 1 1 0 -1 0 7 11 18 SHEAR DIR 94 107 121 110 97 100 86 85 91 97 83 100 112 277 208 199 223 SST (C) 29.9 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.3 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.2 28.5 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 162 161 161 161 161 160 158 157 155 155 150 147 146 145 142 148 153 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -50.9 -51.3 -51.5 -51.3 -51.1 -50.9 -50.8 -50.9 -51.0 -51.2 -51.1 -51.0 -51.1 -50.7 -50.3 -49.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 5 6 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 76 77 74 72 70 69 66 64 63 63 63 57 54 54 51 48 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 15 15 16 17 20 22 24 25 26 27 25 24 25 28 29 850 MB ENV VOR 37 38 35 30 32 44 50 68 70 78 75 60 55 55 63 79 87 200 MB DIV 90 78 54 47 59 39 83 63 86 84 68 28 -3 -9 16 43 12 700-850 TADV -4 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -3 0 0 1 0 0 -1 LAND (KM) 632 618 607 629 651 688 764 832 861 885 886 899 895 887 856 784 698 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.4 15.8 15.9 16.0 16.1 16.0 15.7 15.7 15.8 16.1 16.2 16.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.8 109.1 109.3 109.7 110.0 110.5 111.3 112.1 113.0 113.8 114.4 114.8 114.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 4 4 3 3 4 4 4 4 3 2 1 2 2 6 9 HEAT CONTENT 25 28 32 35 37 38 37 43 45 51 38 29 26 20 18 18 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 532 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 18. 20. 21. 22. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -12. -15. -18. -20. -19. -16. -12. -9. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 6. 9. 14. 14. 15. 15. 12. 10. 10. 12. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 8. 13. 18. 16. 16. 14. 12. 11. 13. 17. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.0 108.8 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152023 LIDIA 10/04/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.71 6.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.22 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 100.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.80 -5.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.51 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.24 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.29 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.95 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.2% 18.0% 16.0% 13.5% 0.0% 18.6% 16.6% 12.5% Logistic: 0.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 3.1% 6.3% 5.4% 4.5% 0.0% 6.2% 5.6% 4.3% DTOPS: 2.0% 4.0% 2.0% 3.0% 3.0% 1.0% 3.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152023 LIDIA 10/04/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##