* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LIDIA EP152023 10/06/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 61 63 63 65 66 67 63 62 61 58 44 36 37 38 37 36 V (KT) LAND 60 61 63 63 65 66 67 63 62 61 58 44 36 37 38 37 36 V (KT) LGEM 60 62 63 65 66 67 66 64 63 64 58 47 40 38 39 38 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 16 17 18 16 18 18 15 7 11 16 27 29 29 33 30 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 -1 -1 -3 -1 2 0 -2 5 8 0 -5 -3 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 95 91 80 93 93 80 85 111 168 220 236 211 211 215 215 213 252 SST (C) 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.1 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.8 29.3 29.6 30.3 30.7 31.0 31.1 31.7 POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 158 157 153 149 147 147 148 151 156 159 166 169 170 172 172 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.5 -50.1 -50.4 -50.7 -50.4 -50.7 -50.4 -50.7 -50.2 -50.2 -49.8 -50.4 -50.7 -51.3 -52.0 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.3 0.9 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 7 6 7 5 7 6 9 6 7 2 700-500 MB RH 65 63 63 61 60 59 56 52 51 52 51 46 47 46 41 34 28 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 24 23 25 26 27 24 23 24 22 11 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 58 60 62 67 68 79 80 78 69 78 79 68 52 43 38 24 9 200 MB DIV 61 47 31 40 46 15 33 13 12 52 61 52 22 6 0 -28 -53 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -3 0 0 -4 -2 -3 -1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 634 663 693 704 711 713 698 641 571 482 387 309 248 192 147 98 69 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.6 16.7 16.8 16.8 17.1 17.5 18.1 18.6 19.0 19.5 20.2 21.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 110.1 110.6 111.0 111.5 112.0 112.9 113.4 113.4 113.0 112.0 110.7 109.5 108.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 4 5 5 4 3 3 4 6 7 6 6 4 6 10 12 HEAT CONTENT 39 38 35 31 28 21 18 16 16 18 24 26 34 37 43 46 44 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. 1. 2. -1. -14. -22. -21. -19. -18. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 3. 2. 1. -2. -16. -24. -23. -22. -23. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 16.4 110.1 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152023 LIDIA 10/06/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.0 36.9 to 148.5 0.55 5.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.27 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 268.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.61 -4.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.41 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 5.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.31 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.9 49.8 to 0.0 0.98 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.99 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.8% 23.2% 20.3% 18.0% 13.1% 20.2% 14.4% 8.7% Logistic: 0.8% 2.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.0% 8.8% 7.0% 6.1% 4.4% 6.8% 4.8% 2.9% DTOPS: 8.0% 13.0% 10.0% 10.0% 8.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152023 LIDIA 10/06/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##