* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992023 10/06/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 19 19 23 28 34 41 44 45 48 52 55 55 53 52 V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 19 19 23 28 34 32 29 27 27 34 36 36 34 33 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 19 18 18 17 17 17 18 24 26 26 30 28 23 19 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 23 21 19 16 15 15 15 10 8 12 17 19 25 32 41 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 13 11 7 6 2 0 3 -2 -2 -5 2 6 4 11 6 1 3 SHEAR DIR 60 53 54 63 65 61 67 68 101 188 238 264 278 251 255 261 283 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 29.2 29.6 29.9 30.4 30.6 30.8 30.2 29.1 29.6 29.9 30.4 30.3 29.5 29.1 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 155 160 163 168 169 169 164 154 162 166 171 170 161 157 138 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.3 -51.2 -51.5 -51.8 -51.3 -51.4 -51.1 -51.5 -51.2 -51.3 -50.5 -50.9 -50.9 -51.2 -51.4 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 8 7 6 7 6 7 5 8 6 8 6 9 7 8 5 700-500 MB RH 73 75 78 78 81 81 82 82 83 80 79 75 67 56 53 54 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 6 5 5 6 7 7 7 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 19 17 8 4 -6 -25 -15 -16 -4 6 68 43 -28 -13 -74 -62 -59 200 MB DIV 18 29 46 77 71 62 77 92 44 39 15 39 8 57 10 7 28 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 0 0 -3 0 -2 0 0 3 8 24 23 23 10 18 LAND (KM) 294 252 235 235 231 221 133 57 -27 -131 -271 -38 168 347 167 179 47 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.4 13.6 13.8 14.0 14.7 15.8 16.6 17.3 18.2 19.8 22.4 24.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 95.7 96.3 97.0 97.6 98.4 99.8 100.6 100.7 100.4 100.1 99.6 98.2 95.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 8 7 5 4 4 6 12 15 15 15 14 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 16 15 17 21 25 34 33 32 27 18 7 35 59 51 36 44 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 4. 13. 19. 26. 30. 34. 37. 42. 46. 50. 55. 61. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -5. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -10. -14. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. -1. -0. 3. 8. 14. 21. 24. 25. 28. 32. 35. 35. 33. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.1 95.7 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP992023 INVEST 10/06/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.1 36.9 to 148.5 0.90 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 37.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 25.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.88 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.42 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.44 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.16 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.47 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.8% 5.3% 13.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Consensus: 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 1.8% 4.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992023 INVEST 10/06/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##