* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LIDIA EP152023 10/08/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 64 65 66 69 70 64 44 36 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 62 64 65 66 69 70 64 39 31 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 62 63 62 62 62 65 58 40 31 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 17 13 13 11 0 7 23 31 31 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 2 -2 -3 -3 -1 7 6 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 87 88 89 95 114 310 266 224 213 208 203 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 29.5 30.2 30.1 29.0 28.8 29.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 150 150 150 159 167 168 156 153 159 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.8 -50.5 -50.0 -50.5 -50.8 -50.5 -50.1 -50.0 -50.2 -50.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 1.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 6 5 6 7 7 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 63 65 66 64 65 64 63 64 60 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 23 23 24 22 22 23 20 7 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 49 47 48 56 51 58 71 83 102 57 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 69 30 20 41 42 55 79 78 27 26 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -3 0 0 -2 6 -3 0 -1 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 791 751 711 662 613 515 423 148 -83 -358 -288 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.6 17.0 17.4 17.8 18.4 19.1 20.2 21.6 23.1 24.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.5 112.6 112.6 112.4 112.2 111.1 109.5 107.1 104.4 102.2 100.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 4 5 7 10 14 13 12 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 33 26 22 20 19 29 46 46 19 20 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 532 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -0. 2. 2. 0. -1. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -5. -23. -27. -29. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 9. 10. 4. -16. -24. -29. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 16.2 112.5 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152023 LIDIA 10/08/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.48 5.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.31 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 245.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.64 -5.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.38 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 5.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.21 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.63 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.6% 28.1% 20.5% 17.9% 13.0% 23.1% 20.3% 8.4% Logistic: 4.5% 15.1% 3.6% 2.9% 1.1% 1.9% 0.7% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.5% 1.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 6.2% 15.0% 8.1% 6.9% 4.7% 8.4% 7.0% 2.9% DTOPS: 9.0% 7.0% 5.0% 6.0% 4.0% 3.0% 6.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152023 LIDIA 10/08/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##