* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIXTEEN EP162023 10/08/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 30 29 28 31 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 31 30 29 28 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 31 31 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 18 16 15 15 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 2 1 0 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 83 86 88 90 94 153 246 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.1 30.1 30.2 30.2 30.1 29.5 28.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 164 163 164 164 164 158 149 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.7 -51.1 -51.3 -51.0 -50.8 -50.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 78 80 80 79 79 82 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -42 -42 -38 -33 -17 58 83 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 92 92 63 21 19 76 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -6 -6 -6 -3 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 188 158 131 98 65 -15 -128 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.1 16.4 16.8 17.2 18.1 19.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 101.6 101.7 101.8 101.8 101.9 101.9 101.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 4 5 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 34 34 34 33 24 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 513 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. 1. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -1. -2. 1. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.7 101.6 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162023 SIXTEEN 10/08/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.9 36.9 to 148.5 0.87 8.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.17 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 33.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.87 -6.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.47 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.31 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.68 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.2% 17.8% 14.7% 11.8% 0.0% 18.1% 14.7% 13.4% Logistic: 0.5% 4.8% 1.2% 0.6% 0.2% 3.4% 6.1% 6.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 4.6% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 2.5% Consensus: 3.2% 9.1% 5.6% 4.2% 0.1% 7.3% 7.0% 7.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162023 SIXTEEN 10/08/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##