* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922023 10/09/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 34 40 51 61 70 75 73 75 72 70 71 72 72 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 34 40 51 61 70 75 73 75 72 70 71 72 72 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 32 37 43 50 56 58 58 54 50 49 49 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 3 7 7 9 8 4 7 8 6 11 13 16 13 12 11 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 17 17 14 17 14 12 8 1 5 16 16 13 5 0 -2 -3 -5 SHEAR DIR 87 64 54 59 58 66 277 256 306 275 227 216 240 263 279 287 279 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.3 29.1 29.1 28.7 28.5 27.6 27.2 27.1 27.0 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 156 158 157 158 158 154 152 153 147 144 132 126 124 122 123 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.9 -52.4 -52.7 -53.1 -52.8 -53.3 -53.1 -53.6 -53.0 -53.6 -53.3 -53.7 -53.8 -54.3 -53.9 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 6 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 77 76 77 80 81 81 80 74 72 65 66 65 61 58 55 48 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 12 11 11 11 13 17 18 20 20 16 17 14 11 9 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 31 32 26 19 12 13 25 24 18 5 4 -5 -38 -70 -87 -91 -82 200 MB DIV 97 58 70 66 76 79 100 104 67 69 91 75 0 -36 -36 -22 -19 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -4 -7 -6 -4 -3 0 -1 0 4 3 1 7 3 2 1 LAND (KM) 1005 1118 1217 1306 1395 1522 1510 1549 1632 1583 1523 1489 1508 1539 1554 1586 1613 LAT (DEG N) 8.2 8.1 7.9 7.7 7.5 7.3 7.6 8.3 9.3 10.9 12.8 15.1 17.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 24.9 26.0 26.9 27.7 28.5 29.8 30.8 31.4 31.6 31.6 31.5 31.4 31.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 9 8 8 6 5 5 6 9 11 12 11 10 7 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 33 35 40 44 50 65 67 49 36 36 21 16 18 23 11 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 720 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 2. 7. 17. 28. 39. 49. 57. 62. 66. 67. 65. 64. 63. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 4. 2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -11. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -6. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. -10. -9. -7. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 7. 8. 9. 3. 2. -3. -9. -12. -14. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. 2. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 15. 26. 36. 45. 50. 48. 50. 47. 45. 46. 47. 47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 8.2 24.9 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922023 INVEST 10/09/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.38 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.25 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.56 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.8 27.0 to 144.1 0.90 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.48 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 31.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.89 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.2% 15.5% 10.0% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% 10.6% 0.0% Logistic: 5.8% 16.3% 7.3% 3.5% 2.0% 6.2% 13.6% 26.0% Bayesian: 0.8% 5.0% 2.0% 0.4% 0.2% 2.0% 3.9% 5.3% Consensus: 2.9% 12.3% 6.4% 3.3% 0.7% 2.7% 9.4% 10.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922023 INVEST 10/09/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 31 34 40 51 61 70 75 73 75 72 70 71 72 72 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 31 37 48 58 67 72 70 72 69 67 68 69 69 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 32 43 53 62 67 65 67 64 62 63 64 64 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 24 35 45 54 59 57 59 56 54 55 56 56 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT