* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922023 10/10/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 40 42 45 43 38 36 35 34 36 39 45 49 55 60 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 40 42 45 43 38 36 35 34 36 39 45 49 55 60 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 34 34 34 32 29 27 25 26 28 31 36 41 47 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 11 14 16 22 27 19 10 5 10 9 9 10 5 4 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 12 12 8 9 9 7 6 7 6 1 0 0 -4 2 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 232 224 219 220 232 244 258 245 255 190 184 157 146 158 203 228 210 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.2 28.7 29.0 29.1 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 152 149 145 148 147 143 141 143 143 143 139 147 152 154 158 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -53.0 -53.5 -53.5 -53.2 -53.7 -53.6 -54.1 -53.9 -54.2 -54.0 -54.1 -53.9 -54.0 -53.6 -53.3 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 -0.4 -0.4 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 7 7 7 8 7 7 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 74 73 76 73 71 69 61 60 57 58 54 55 54 57 53 56 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 15 15 15 16 16 14 13 11 8 7 6 5 4 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 20 19 15 12 2 -6 -7 -15 -16 -25 -28 -36 -34 -34 -42 -32 -28 200 MB DIV 62 88 89 70 49 50 21 -28 8 -16 34 23 25 14 -5 -18 2 700-850 TADV -6 -5 -3 -4 -5 -3 -3 0 0 0 0 -4 -4 -1 -3 0 -3 LAND (KM) 1466 1554 1656 1684 1678 1676 1697 1727 1733 1739 1709 1673 1598 1501 1394 1159 853 LAT (DEG N) 9.7 10.0 10.3 10.7 11.1 11.7 12.2 12.8 13.6 14.2 14.8 15.4 15.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 30.0 31.0 32.1 33.2 34.2 36.0 37.4 38.2 38.7 39.1 40.0 41.1 42.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 11 11 10 8 7 5 4 4 6 7 9 10 11 13 15 HEAT CONTENT 36 37 35 25 20 27 29 28 28 30 31 37 41 38 35 52 42 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 34.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 15. 24. 33. 40. 47. 51. 54. 56. 55. 56. 56. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -3. -9. -13. -15. -17. -17. -17. -16. -14. -13. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -8. -8. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. 1. -0. -3. -6. -10. -15. -18. -21. -22. -25. -25. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 10. 7. 3. -0. -3. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 12. 15. 13. 8. 6. 5. 5. 6. 9. 15. 19. 25. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 9.7 30.0 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922023 INVEST 10/10/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 32.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.34 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.19 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.96 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.54 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.3 27.0 to 144.1 0.80 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.47 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 73.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.85 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 22.3% 12.4% 9.3% 6.9% 9.9% 8.7% 10.1% Logistic: 26.4% 32.1% 22.1% 15.8% 7.2% 5.2% 1.9% 1.6% Bayesian: 5.3% 7.1% 5.0% 2.1% 1.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.2% Consensus: 12.3% 20.5% 13.2% 9.1% 5.3% 5.2% 3.5% 4.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922023 INVEST 10/10/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 36 40 42 45 43 38 36 35 34 36 39 45 49 55 60 18HR AGO 30 29 32 36 38 41 39 34 32 31 30 32 35 41 45 51 56 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 32 35 33 28 26 25 24 26 29 35 39 45 50 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 25 23 18 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT