* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEAN AL192023 10/11/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 34 34 33 34 36 38 41 45 50 51 56 58 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 34 34 33 34 36 38 41 45 50 51 56 58 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 35 34 33 31 28 26 25 26 28 30 33 35 40 44 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 23 24 23 23 16 7 9 11 11 7 8 14 13 11 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 9 6 6 6 7 4 4 1 0 0 -3 -4 -5 -4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 237 238 249 254 255 249 283 73 91 106 47 41 29 51 71 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.8 28.9 28.8 29.1 28.8 28.7 28.9 28.9 28.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 143 142 140 142 148 149 147 152 148 147 150 150 147 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -54.0 -53.8 -54.2 -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 -53.7 -53.5 -53.3 -53.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.3 -0.2 -0.4 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 68 67 65 62 59 54 51 48 50 47 50 43 48 47 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 16 16 16 16 15 12 11 9 7 7 5 5 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 0 -2 -1 -6 -14 -23 -46 -54 -57 -67 -71 -78 -67 -75 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 1 15 35 37 29 -27 -6 -14 -31 -12 -21 -18 -18 -18 13 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -6 -5 -5 -3 0 1 0 0 -2 -2 -3 -3 0 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1681 1673 1671 1692 1718 1620 1546 1549 1551 1548 1524 1369 1181 1033 888 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.6 11.8 12.2 12.5 13.2 14.0 15.1 15.9 16.8 17.7 18.3 18.7 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 34.9 35.8 36.6 37.4 38.1 39.7 41.3 42.5 43.5 44.7 46.0 47.8 50.0 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 8 8 9 8 7 7 7 8 10 10 9 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 22 25 24 25 25 35 47 41 40 43 45 43 43 51 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 701 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 21. 28. 35. 40. 44. 46. 47. 46. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -12. -12. -13. -13. -12. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -8. -11. -15. -19. -21. -25. -25. -27. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 15. 17. 21. 23. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 11.4 34.9 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192023 SEAN 10/11/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 38.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.19 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.14 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.33 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.37 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.8 27.0 to 144.1 0.66 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.25 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 133.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.79 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 10.4% 6.8% 4.8% 0.0% 6.8% 6.3% 10.5% Logistic: 1.3% 1.9% 1.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.5% 0.7% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 4.1% 2.7% 1.8% 0.1% 2.4% 2.3% 3.7% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192023 SEAN 10/11/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 35 34 34 33 34 36 38 41 45 50 51 56 58 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 34 33 33 32 33 35 37 40 44 49 50 55 57 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 30 30 29 30 32 34 37 41 46 47 52 54 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 24 25 27 29 32 36 41 42 47 49 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT