* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEAN AL192023 10/12/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 27 27 27 26 26 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 27 27 26 26 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 27 25 23 22 22 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 26 23 19 18 14 8 13 16 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 9 10 7 4 5 5 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 258 255 251 258 282 359 55 76 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.7 28.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 143 143 144 144 145 143 146 147 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.7 -54.0 -54.2 -54.2 -54.1 -54.1 -53.8 -53.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.4 -0.5 -0.2 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 62 62 61 59 57 55 51 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 13 13 13 11 8 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -9 -16 -22 -27 -46 -68 -70 -70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 8 13 13 7 -11 0 -35 -22 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -2 -3 -2 -1 0 2 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1763 1787 1755 1711 1672 1644 1668 1685 1646 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.1 13.4 13.9 14.3 15.4 16.7 17.9 18.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 36.8 37.5 38.3 39.1 40.0 41.5 42.8 44.1 45.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 9 10 9 9 8 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 27 25 25 26 27 40 42 50 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 6. 13. 21. 28. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -4. -8. -12. -17. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.7 36.8 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192023 SEAN 10/12/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 36.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.24 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.16 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.22 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.8 27.0 to 144.1 0.71 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.17 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 135.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.79 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.6 109.3 to 0.0 0.87 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 9.7% 6.4% 4.6% 4.5% 7.2% 6.5% 10.4% Logistic: 0.4% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 3.5% 2.3% 1.6% 1.5% 2.6% 2.3% 3.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192023 SEAN 10/12/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192023 SEAN 10/12/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 28 27 27 27 26 26 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 28 27 27 27 26 26 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 25 25 25 24 24 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 20 19 19 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT