* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942023 10/13/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 25 26 31 35 43 49 53 58 63 67 71 71 74 77 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 25 26 31 35 43 49 53 58 63 67 71 71 74 77 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 26 27 30 34 40 45 50 53 56 59 62 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 4 3 2 7 12 10 8 4 8 11 13 11 12 17 12 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 12 15 16 11 3 1 1 3 7 3 1 2 4 8 15 3 SHEAR DIR 253 246 168 121 100 104 109 95 126 233 294 294 323 27 40 7 327 SST (C) 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.6 29.8 29.9 29.8 29.3 29.3 30.0 30.6 30.2 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 154 156 158 160 160 158 156 161 165 166 164 155 154 168 171 172 159 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -53.3 -53.6 -54.0 -53.9 -54.7 -54.3 -54.5 -54.0 -53.7 -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -53.7 -53.1 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 70 68 71 75 78 77 78 74 72 64 69 71 76 71 66 63 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 17 14 9 7 3 8 17 22 32 27 23 24 29 39 31 19 4 200 MB DIV 33 21 51 62 70 88 72 72 35 -4 12 62 60 107 87 50 55 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 0 0 3 6 14 20 LAND (KM) 1108 1218 1312 1406 1501 1418 1286 1209 1144 1089 1038 991 950 981 1058 1097 1189 LAT (DEG N) 8.5 8.3 8.0 7.7 7.4 6.9 6.5 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.4 6.1 6.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 26.1 27.1 27.9 28.7 29.5 31.3 33.0 34.6 35.9 37.4 38.7 39.9 41.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 8 9 9 9 7 7 6 7 6 5 6 8 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 33 38 43 48 53 54 45 52 60 67 73 68 58 49 48 41 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 711 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 7. 17. 29. 40. 51. 60. 68. 75. 79. 78. 80. 79. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 2. 0. -3. -6. -8. -9. -12. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. -8. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -14. -15. -16. -17. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -0. 1. 6. 10. 18. 24. 28. 33. 38. 42. 46. 46. 49. 52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 8.5 26.1 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942023 INVEST 10/13/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.49 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.27 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.28 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.5 27.0 to 144.1 0.90 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.36 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 52.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.87 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.6% 15.7% 10.3% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 11.3% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 7.9% 2.9% 1.4% 0.7% 3.6% 6.2% 27.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 2.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.4% 0.7% Consensus: 1.4% 8.6% 4.5% 2.7% 0.3% 1.3% 5.9% 9.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942023 INVEST 10/13/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 24 24 25 26 31 35 43 49 53 58 63 67 71 71 74 77 18HR AGO 25 24 24 25 26 31 35 43 49 53 58 63 67 71 71 74 77 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 28 32 40 46 50 55 60 64 68 68 71 74 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 21 25 33 39 43 48 53 57 61 61 64 67 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT