* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942023 10/17/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 40 47 54 63 70 73 76 74 75 75 73 71 70 66 57 V (KT) LAND 30 34 40 47 54 63 70 73 76 74 75 75 73 71 70 66 57 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 39 42 48 55 60 62 62 63 63 63 61 57 53 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 12 9 7 8 11 10 15 12 20 12 19 21 28 25 37 46 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 2 3 3 3 5 10 12 2 6 5 5 2 3 10 7 SHEAR DIR 287 285 287 312 327 281 272 253 242 235 227 229 207 204 209 204 200 SST (C) 29.4 29.9 29.6 29.4 29.8 29.9 29.8 29.8 30.1 30.1 30.1 29.8 28.9 28.9 28.5 28.0 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 160 169 164 160 167 169 167 167 172 172 172 166 150 150 144 139 122 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -52.8 -53.0 -52.3 -52.2 -51.7 -51.6 -51.3 -51.4 -51.2 -51.5 -52.0 -51.6 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 8 6 5 4 3 700-500 MB RH 77 74 70 67 66 60 58 56 57 57 57 62 60 54 47 39 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 12 13 17 18 19 19 19 22 20 21 21 22 22 23 23 21 850 MB ENV VOR 24 20 19 27 23 14 31 26 30 25 12 5 2 -10 -5 5 56 200 MB DIV 97 110 132 140 117 65 63 70 39 13 43 7 48 50 83 88 107 700-850 TADV -6 -9 -8 -8 -1 -1 12 12 20 10 9 3 5 6 5 -6 -28 LAND (KM) 1182 1104 1040 949 875 804 512 313 188 9 125 312 549 749 943 1219 1566 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 43.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 15 14 13 13 13 13 12 12 11 10 9 11 16 17 HEAT CONTENT 32 51 46 38 53 81 88 74 68 75 90 71 37 35 34 19 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 739 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 43.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 14. 23. 32. 39. 45. 50. 53. 53. 49. 47. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -1. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -16. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -1. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 11. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 9. 7. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 2. 0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 4. 7. 10. 14. 13. 10. 5. -0. -5. -9. -10. -10. -10. -11. -10. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 17. 24. 33. 40. 43. 46. 44. 45. 45. 43. 41. 40. 36. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.5 43.5 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942023 INVEST 10/17/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.64 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.27 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.26 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.0 27.0 to 144.1 0.91 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 119.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.69 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 91.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.83 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.6 109.3 to 0.0 0.97 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 30.5% 13.3% 9.0% 6.7% 12.2% 14.6% 16.8% Logistic: 4.8% 26.4% 10.5% 4.5% 2.0% 5.6% 7.0% 2.2% Bayesian: 3.5% 12.8% 2.4% 0.2% 0.1% 2.6% 14.0% 1.2% Consensus: 4.0% 23.2% 8.7% 4.6% 3.0% 6.8% 11.9% 6.8% DTOPS: 2.0% 8.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 5.0% 21.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942023 INVEST 10/17/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942023 INVEST 10/17/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 34 40 47 54 63 70 73 76 74 75 75 73 71 70 66 57 18HR AGO 30 29 35 42 49 58 65 68 71 69 70 70 68 66 65 61 52 12HR AGO 30 27 26 33 40 49 56 59 62 60 61 61 59 57 56 52 43 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 27 36 43 46 49 47 48 48 46 44 43 39 30 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT