* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912023 10/19/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 33 35 38 39 40 42 47 50 52 53 54 54 53 52 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 33 35 38 39 40 42 47 50 52 53 54 54 53 52 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 30 31 33 34 35 34 35 37 40 44 50 57 64 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 18 16 18 18 24 25 26 22 20 19 15 16 14 16 23 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -2 0 0 1 0 -4 -4 0 -1 0 -3 2 0 1 SHEAR DIR 83 75 71 76 68 71 71 75 69 73 68 71 69 84 90 71 63 SST (C) 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.4 28.5 29.0 28.9 28.4 29.0 29.8 29.9 30.1 30.3 POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 146 145 146 146 147 146 148 154 153 147 153 161 161 163 165 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.1 -52.6 -53.0 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 6 5 6 700-500 MB RH 85 84 85 83 81 77 76 72 67 68 72 76 79 82 82 84 85 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 12 12 11 10 9 9 10 9 9 7 8 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -4 -4 0 0 -1 7 12 12 9 8 39 45 46 47 80 79 200 MB DIV 91 113 111 95 89 86 89 123 81 82 92 105 104 97 74 80 100 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 LAND (KM) 722 747 788 838 895 930 909 883 816 719 595 456 336 248 155 71 5 LAT (DEG N) 8.4 8.3 8.1 7.8 7.5 7.3 7.5 7.7 7.7 8.0 8.7 9.6 10.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 94.8 95.1 95.5 95.9 96.4 97.0 97.1 96.5 95.3 93.9 92.3 90.9 89.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 4 5 5 5 2 2 5 6 8 9 7 6 5 4 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 13 12 12 12 15 17 16 13 16 20 14 9 15 30 29 27 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 713 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 11. 20. 30. 38. 44. 49. 53. 55. 55. 53. 51. 48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -1. -6. -15. -25. -33. -36. -38. -39. -37. -32. -24. -19. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. 12. 10. 6. 4. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -2. -4. -3. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 10. 13. 14. 15. 17. 22. 25. 27. 28. 29. 29. 28. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 8.4 94.8 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912023 INVEST 10/19/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.76 7.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.25 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 10.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.90 -6.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 99.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.69 3.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.10 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.65 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.5% 14.3% 0.0% 0.0% 15.7% 13.1% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 12.0% 2.2% 1.2% 0.5% 1.1% 7.1% 22.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 10.4% 5.6% 0.4% 0.2% 5.6% 6.8% 7.6% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912023 INVEST 10/19/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##