* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TAMMY AL202023 10/20/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 55 58 60 66 70 76 83 88 90 94 101 105 101 86 76 V (KT) LAND 50 53 55 58 60 66 70 76 83 88 90 94 101 105 101 86 76 V (KT) LGEM 50 51 52 53 55 58 63 69 75 80 81 85 92 88 70 48 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 14 11 9 12 9 17 12 17 18 18 21 36 63 78 92 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 5 6 6 1 7 -1 4 0 3 0 8 8 9 2 -6 SHEAR DIR 281 268 275 270 272 293 262 266 251 249 224 211 192 216 241 253 253 SST (C) 29.8 29.9 30.0 29.9 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.4 28.8 29.1 28.6 26.9 25.6 24.3 22.5 22.2 POT. INT. (KT) 165 167 169 168 169 169 167 165 158 148 154 148 128 116 105 90 87 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -51.8 -51.9 -51.8 -51.5 -51.6 -51.6 -52.1 -51.9 -51.8 -51.6 -51.4 -53.0 -54.3 -55.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.1 0.7 1.1 1.3 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 9 9 10 9 9 9 8 7 5 5 3 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 60 60 60 60 58 60 60 63 62 60 56 55 55 61 61 64 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 16 16 15 18 18 21 24 27 28 33 40 47 48 41 35 850 MB ENV VOR 21 21 26 28 23 6 9 0 -3 3 40 90 133 139 66 -54 -81 200 MB DIV 101 83 68 67 56 10 38 33 89 41 59 106 119 130 114 79 27 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 4 0 2 0 2 4 8 10 3 -7 33 42 28 -30 LAND (KM) 298 217 153 157 110 56 69 182 350 540 750 1063 1493 1456 1051 1019 1155 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.9 14.1 14.7 15.3 16.7 18.3 19.9 21.4 23.1 24.8 27.0 29.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 56.7 57.6 58.4 59.3 60.1 61.3 62.1 62.7 62.5 62.0 61.1 58.7 54.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 10 9 9 9 8 8 9 12 19 24 30 25 13 8 HEAT CONTENT 71 69 65 59 61 77 78 81 68 45 37 26 5 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):279/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 25.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 16. 21. 24. 26. 28. 28. 25. 20. 15. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 1. 4. 7. 11. 12. 18. 27. 35. 37. 24. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 4. 2. -0. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 10. 16. 20. 26. 33. 38. 40. 44. 51. 55. 51. 36. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 13.6 56.7 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202023 TAMMY 10/20/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.54 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 65.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.40 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.47 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.73 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.26 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.7 27.0 to 144.1 0.75 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.48 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 244.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.67 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.9 109.3 to 0.0 0.96 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 20.7% 12.0% 9.3% 7.3% 12.3% 16.1% 17.2% Logistic: 2.5% 5.0% 2.4% 1.1% 0.4% 1.5% 1.8% 1.1% Bayesian: 1.2% 0.8% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.5% 0.1% Consensus: 2.9% 8.9% 5.0% 3.5% 2.6% 4.7% 6.2% 6.1% DTOPS: 5.0% 25.0% 14.0% 8.0% 5.0% 5.0% 6.0% 12.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202023 TAMMY 10/20/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202023 TAMMY 10/20/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 53 55 58 60 66 70 76 83 88 90 94 101 105 101 86 76 18HR AGO 50 49 51 54 56 62 66 72 79 84 86 90 97 101 97 82 72 12HR AGO 50 47 46 49 51 57 61 67 74 79 81 85 92 96 92 77 67 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 42 48 52 58 65 70 72 76 83 87 83 68 58 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT