* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMA EP172023 10/20/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 92 85 77 71 62 52 40 32 29 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 100 92 85 77 71 62 52 40 29 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 100 92 83 75 68 58 50 42 33 29 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 22 24 24 22 21 32 35 40 41 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 7 7 8 8 2 -1 4 11 6 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 199 201 198 199 208 215 217 221 234 235 228 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.3 29.0 29.1 29.7 30.4 30.8 31.0 30.3 29.0 28.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 154 155 161 167 169 169 166 152 148 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.5 -51.2 -50.8 -50.8 -50.7 -50.1 -50.1 -50.0 -50.9 -51.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.4 1.6 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 6 7 5 6 6 7 6 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 52 52 49 46 43 39 36 36 29 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 28 25 24 22 22 20 15 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 54 47 47 48 38 27 24 52 73 53 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -23 -19 22 11 34 71 -2 15 -4 20 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 5 10 6 0 -1 2 -1 1 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 353 343 351 277 190 43 14 95 -15 -104 -171 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.5 19.2 19.8 20.6 21.3 22.7 23.5 24.0 24.7 25.1 25.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.4 108.7 109.0 109.3 109.5 109.6 109.3 108.7 107.7 106.9 106.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 8 7 6 4 5 5 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 44 33 23 21 28 31 34 34 28 17 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -5. -14. -23. -30. -36. -41. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -10. -13. -15. -14. -11. -9. -8. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -12. -23. -31. -31. -30. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -15. -23. -28. -38. -48. -60. -68. -71. -74. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 18.5 108.4 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172023 NORMA 10/20/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.9 36.9 to 148.5 0.18 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 38.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 611.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.23 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.20 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.90 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.27 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 15.6 49.8 to 0.0 0.69 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.45 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172023 NORMA 10/20/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##