* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TAMMY AL202023 10/20/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 71 75 79 81 84 87 87 89 88 86 80 79 82 78 66 56 V (KT) LAND 65 71 75 79 81 84 87 87 89 88 86 80 79 82 78 66 56 V (KT) LGEM 65 70 73 75 77 81 86 91 94 93 89 83 75 65 51 35 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 15 14 10 12 10 17 15 22 24 43 43 61 68 71 60 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 7 2 3 5 2 0 4 0 3 4 7 17 11 7 -2 -6 SHEAR DIR 266 275 283 293 303 249 273 270 255 250 236 239 223 223 224 235 245 SST (C) 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.7 29.7 29.3 29.2 28.7 28.7 28.5 27.5 26.7 25.8 25.1 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 168 167 167 167 167 163 163 155 154 146 147 145 132 122 114 109 103 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.7 -51.9 -51.7 -51.4 -51.8 -51.7 -52.0 -52.2 -52.6 -52.1 -51.7 -50.5 -51.3 -52.1 -54.0 -56.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.4 1.1 1.7 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 0 700-500 MB RH 63 62 63 63 63 66 66 67 62 58 48 41 38 41 46 44 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 15 16 14 16 19 20 24 27 30 30 33 38 38 31 24 850 MB ENV VOR 37 30 19 15 13 11 8 -6 12 50 90 119 147 139 120 86 2 200 MB DIV 101 71 40 7 11 29 67 38 64 55 89 89 58 40 37 17 -9 700-850 TADV 10 10 7 10 13 5 11 7 11 6 2 16 32 31 30 -1 -40 LAND (KM) 114 149 119 90 64 55 136 271 419 579 765 1022 1381 1674 1519 1292 1118 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.7 15.3 16.0 16.7 18.2 19.5 20.9 22.2 23.4 24.7 26.5 29.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 58.9 59.5 60.0 60.6 61.2 62.0 62.8 63.1 62.7 61.8 60.3 58.5 56.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 9 9 8 7 7 7 9 10 14 15 13 16 20 22 HEAT CONTENT 61 56 58 67 74 75 77 68 58 39 34 25 17 3 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 41.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 15. 13. 9. 4. -1. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -3. -2. 0. 1. 5. 9. 13. 13. 16. 22. 21. 10. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 4. 6. 10. 13. 13. 9. 4. -0. -5. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -9. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 10. 14. 16. 19. 22. 22. 24. 23. 21. 15. 14. 17. 13. 1. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 14.1 58.9 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202023 TAMMY 10/20/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 11.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.49 3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 63.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.39 2.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.76 4.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.93 3.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.25 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.8 27.0 to 144.1 0.60 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.35 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 271.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.65 1.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.0 109.3 to 0.0 0.98 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 4.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 6.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 19.3% 44.2% 30.4% 23.5% 16.6% 21.5% 17.3% 16.1% Logistic: 11.3% 19.5% 12.6% 9.8% 4.6% 8.5% 5.1% 2.7% Bayesian: 14.2% 20.3% 7.6% 3.2% 1.4% 5.1% 2.9% 0.1% Consensus: 15.0% 28.0% 16.9% 12.2% 7.6% 11.7% 8.4% 6.3% DTOPS: 20.0% 36.0% 24.0% 11.0% 3.0% 14.0% 9.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202023 TAMMY 10/20/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202023 TAMMY 10/20/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 5( 7) 8( 14) 9( 22) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 1( 1) 0( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 71 75 79 81 84 87 87 89 88 86 80 79 82 78 66 56 18HR AGO 65 64 68 72 74 77 80 80 82 81 79 73 72 75 71 59 49 12HR AGO 65 62 61 65 67 70 73 73 75 74 72 66 65 68 64 52 42 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 57 60 63 63 65 64 62 56 55 58 54 42 32 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT