* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912023 10/20/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 25 27 30 35 42 47 49 48 48 46 46 47 44 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 25 27 30 35 42 47 49 48 48 46 46 47 44 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 24 23 23 23 25 29 32 36 42 48 55 63 69 69 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 17 18 20 19 14 10 12 12 8 11 17 24 26 28 22 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 6 6 5 5 1 1 5 0 -6 -5 -3 -1 2 7 4 6 SHEAR DIR 70 77 73 80 80 77 57 62 65 92 116 110 110 96 85 79 73 SST (C) 28.3 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.5 29.4 30.1 30.1 29.7 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.1 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 142 141 141 142 146 156 164 164 159 154 152 153 155 154 155 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 -52.8 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 -52.5 -52.3 -52.6 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 7 5 6 5 6 5 7 700-500 MB RH 80 78 78 77 76 76 71 72 75 78 80 85 84 87 83 82 76 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 12 10 9 10 9 8 8 9 10 13 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -6 0 3 13 18 19 19 29 37 51 65 74 93 97 104 99 200 MB DIV 75 58 58 50 61 88 66 65 54 71 72 89 89 112 123 109 114 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 -1 0 0 0 1 4 2 -6 -4 -5 LAND (KM) 707 723 707 696 674 651 642 582 493 388 304 262 246 269 252 272 170 LAT (DEG N) 9.0 9.1 9.3 9.4 9.6 9.8 9.9 10.1 10.6 11.4 12.2 12.7 12.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 95.6 96.0 96.4 96.6 96.7 96.5 96.0 95.2 94.5 94.0 93.8 93.8 93.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 3 2 2 2 3 5 5 4 3 1 0 2 3 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 9 8 8 8 8 9 12 23 36 36 27 21 20 20 18 15 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 696 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 9. 17. 25. 32. 37. 42. 44. 46. 47. 46. 44. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -1. -4. -8. -11. -14. -14. -14. -15. -17. -16. -15. -13. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 11. 10. 7. 5. 3. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -4. -5. -7. -7. -5. -4. -1. 2. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -12. -12. -12. -10. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 10. 17. 22. 24. 23. 23. 21. 21. 22. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.0 95.6 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912023 INVEST 10/20/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.72 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 32.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 33.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.87 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.49 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.05 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.66 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 10.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 9.5% 10.7% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 1.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 1.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 3.2% 3.6% 0.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912023 INVEST 10/20/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##