* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912023 10/21/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 25 29 36 42 50 52 53 55 60 60 60 58 57 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 25 29 36 42 50 52 53 55 60 60 60 58 39 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 24 24 24 26 29 32 36 42 47 51 54 54 50 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 23 18 12 8 13 10 11 12 18 25 29 22 14 19 12 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 2 1 1 4 4 0 -3 -6 -7 0 5 6 9 11 13 6 SHEAR DIR 66 72 74 79 64 75 71 72 103 106 81 74 70 60 76 80 83 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.6 29.2 29.7 30.0 30.1 30.1 30.0 29.8 29.5 29.4 29.4 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 144 144 144 147 154 159 162 163 163 161 160 158 158 159 150 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 -52.3 -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 -52.0 -51.5 -51.7 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 5 6 4 6 5 6 700-500 MB RH 74 74 72 71 70 71 75 78 78 83 84 85 81 81 76 73 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 12 11 10 10 12 10 10 10 10 13 17 17 18 15 12 850 MB ENV VOR 2 3 7 10 8 7 20 15 26 71 69 72 75 83 76 85 81 200 MB DIV 57 69 84 79 66 52 43 61 64 109 114 96 150 83 114 76 53 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 2 -4 -8 0 1 5 3 LAND (KM) 686 677 666 664 663 663 619 557 469 407 381 345 272 210 165 78 -138 LAT (DEG N) 9.5 9.6 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.9 10.3 11.0 11.4 11.3 11.4 12.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 97.0 97.2 97.2 97.0 96.8 96.2 95.5 95.1 94.7 94.3 93.7 93.2 93.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 3 3 3 2 4 6 7 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 10 10 10 10 10 12 18 27 35 36 39 34 27 21 18 18 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 17. 25. 32. 36. 41. 44. 48. 50. 49. 48. 48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -6. -8. -10. -13. -16. -20. -22. -19. -15. -11. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 12. 11. 9. 6. 3. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -4. -5. -5. -5. -1. 4. 4. 5. 2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. -0. 0. 4. 11. 17. 25. 27. 28. 30. 35. 35. 35. 33. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.5 97.0 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912023 INVEST 10/21/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.74 5.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.10 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 56.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.85 -4.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.54 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.33 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.07 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.84 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 10.2% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% 10.1% 10.9% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 1.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 1.3% 9.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.0% 4.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.4% 4.1% 3.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912023 INVEST 10/21/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##