* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952023 10/23/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 38 43 48 54 58 60 62 65 64 64 65 66 71 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 32 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 31 28 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 4 6 6 4 8 5 11 10 10 4 19 13 5 11 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 5 4 1 0 -2 4 2 -1 4 9 10 9 7 3 -4 SHEAR DIR 158 167 139 108 92 81 64 14 52 64 104 127 104 128 145 175 189 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.8 30.1 29.9 30.3 29.5 29.0 29.7 29.0 29.1 28.8 28.1 28.7 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 156 158 164 169 166 171 160 151 164 152 154 149 139 147 146 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -52.5 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -51.8 -52.3 -51.6 -52.1 -51.4 -52.1 -51.3 -52.2 -51.9 -52.5 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 7 6 6 4 5 4 6 4 6 3 5 3 6 700-500 MB RH 74 75 76 77 79 81 84 84 83 83 76 75 72 72 74 69 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 10 10 11 10 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 31 28 24 32 36 50 65 80 97 120 127 121 112 85 74 46 200 MB DIV 57 58 66 69 62 37 44 82 71 57 126 118 95 66 80 58 23 700-850 TADV 3 3 3 2 3 3 0 1 0 -1 -3 1 0 4 0 3 3 LAND (KM) 137 93 48 10 -18 -130 -146 -10 -61 -84 -12 39 -68 -90 -122 -189 -135 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 11.9 12.2 12.4 12.7 13.1 13.3 13.5 14.0 14.7 15.2 15.9 16.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 82.4 82.8 83.1 83.4 83.8 84.8 86.0 87.5 89.1 90.8 92.8 95.1 97.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 5 5 7 8 8 9 11 12 13 12 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 25 26 28 31 40 8 25 48 32 18 24 18 19 15 10 16 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 14. 23. 31. 39. 46. 51. 55. 57. 55. 54. 52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 7. 6. 6. 3. 1. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -0. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -12. -13. -14. -14. -13. -12. -11. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -4. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 13. 18. 24. 28. 30. 32. 35. 34. 34. 35. 36. 41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.7 82.4 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952023 INVEST 10/23/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.72 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.19 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.34 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.57 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.1 27.0 to 144.1 0.80 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.43 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 46.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.88 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 34% is 6.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 16.7% 10.9% 8.0% 5.7% 11.1% 14.5% 34.5% Logistic: 5.2% 35.7% 16.4% 7.0% 5.5% 23.6% 46.1% 81.5% Bayesian: 1.1% 15.0% 1.8% 0.2% 0.2% 5.0% 6.3% 93.3% Consensus: 2.7% 22.5% 9.7% 5.1% 3.8% 13.2% 22.3% 69.8% DTOPS: 2.0% 5.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952023 INVEST 10/23/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952023 INVEST 10/23/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 35 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 32 28 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 29 26 25 25 25 25 25 30 26 25 25 25 25 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 24 21 20 20 20 20 20 25 21 20 20 20 20 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT