* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922023 10/26/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 27 32 37 44 49 53 59 64 68 63 53 52 50 48 52 V (KT) LAND 20 23 27 32 37 44 49 53 59 64 68 47 34 29 27 27 31 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 21 23 24 27 28 29 30 35 42 35 30 28 27 27 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 18 22 20 15 23 20 12 5 4 7 17 22 22 23 19 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 1 7 11 8 12 2 1 -2 0 6 8 0 -2 -5 SHEAR DIR 79 74 74 68 55 51 59 56 110 109 153 164 166 158 160 155 147 SST (C) 29.4 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.8 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.6 29.8 29.8 29.4 29.5 30.4 30.3 29.6 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 157 153 150 148 148 149 152 154 158 160 159 156 158 166 164 159 162 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -52.2 -52.6 -52.2 -51.8 -52.6 -52.2 -52.8 -52.4 -52.8 -52.1 -52.6 -52.3 -53.1 -52.8 -53.4 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 6 4 3 5 4 6 5 6 4 5 4 4 3 4 700-500 MB RH 86 86 85 82 83 82 77 73 70 68 67 69 74 75 77 76 77 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 11 13 15 18 19 19 18 19 20 18 11 11 12 12 14 850 MB ENV VOR 65 84 78 71 69 81 82 76 65 69 80 78 74 49 46 60 36 200 MB DIV 123 101 82 97 139 144 91 70 42 55 76 56 52 22 15 42 78 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 -3 -4 -11 -6 -3 1 0 1 -1 2 -1 1 3 5 LAND (KM) 308 341 376 397 415 403 316 216 117 53 19 -49 -113 -99 -103 -78 35 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 10.5 10.3 10.2 10.1 10.3 11.1 12.0 12.9 13.5 13.9 14.4 14.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 89.6 90.2 90.7 91.0 91.2 91.4 91.3 91.1 91.1 91.4 91.6 91.1 90.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 4 3 2 3 5 5 4 3 2 5 5 3 2 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 23 15 12 11 11 12 14 16 19 22 23 21 21 44 50 28 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 28.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 7. 17. 26. 33. 37. 42. 45. 48. 51. 51. 51. 52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -3. -9. -14. -15. -14. -13. -13. -14. -14. -12. -10. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 11. 9. 7. 5. 3. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 14. 14. 16. 12. 3. 2. 3. 3. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 17. 24. 29. 33. 39. 44. 48. 43. 33. 32. 30. 28. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.6 89.6 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP922023 INVEST 10/26/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.85 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.09 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 21.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.89 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 108.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.73 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.12 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.52 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 13.8% 2.6% 1.8% 0.4% 3.4% 7.0% 20.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 4.7% 0.9% 0.6% 0.1% 1.1% 2.3% 6.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922023 INVEST 10/26/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##