* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922023 10/27/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 31 33 39 49 58 59 55 46 45 44 45 47 50 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 31 33 39 49 58 50 38 31 28 27 27 31 34 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 28 28 28 30 34 39 38 32 28 27 27 27 30 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 20 17 17 15 9 3 5 10 11 18 23 22 25 24 26 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 6 7 5 8 0 -1 -4 0 0 3 3 3 0 -2 -7 SHEAR DIR 59 60 62 65 55 42 84 172 159 155 139 149 147 149 143 139 141 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.4 29.0 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.2 29.5 30.2 30.1 30.0 29.1 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 144 142 141 141 141 146 152 157 157 157 154 158 164 163 164 156 159 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 -52.4 -53.1 -52.4 -52.6 -52.1 -52.4 -51.9 -52.7 -52.6 -53.1 -52.9 -53.5 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 5 5 4 6 4 6 5 6 4 5 3 3 2 3 700-500 MB RH 82 83 83 80 77 69 65 66 67 64 67 70 76 80 81 83 83 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 14 15 17 16 16 16 17 19 18 14 9 8 9 11 12 13 850 MB ENV VOR 72 82 81 85 85 76 53 62 69 59 65 58 59 88 95 81 35 200 MB DIV 104 100 112 128 108 65 39 63 65 26 30 7 35 30 84 93 63 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -4 -4 -3 -1 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 3 8 7 6 LAND (KM) 355 363 357 338 306 228 150 94 41 -4 -49 -121 -113 -108 -28 137 311 LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.3 10.4 10.6 10.9 11.6 12.4 13.1 13.6 14.0 14.3 14.6 14.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 90.0 90.2 90.4 90.5 90.5 90.4 90.5 90.9 91.3 91.1 90.4 89.4 88.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 3 3 5 4 4 2 3 5 5 4 3 7 11 13 HEAT CONTENT 13 11 10 10 10 14 16 19 21 21 20 22 49 12 32 18 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 28. 32. 36. 39. 42. 44. 45. 46. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -10. -10. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 4. 6. 9. 8. 3. -4. -5. -3. -2. -1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 6. 8. 15. 24. 33. 34. 30. 21. 20. 19. 20. 22. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.3 90.0 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP922023 INVEST 10/27/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.72 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 32.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 32.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.87 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 110.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.74 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.32 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.08 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.84 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 10.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.4% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 1.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.9% 1.8% 6.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.0% 4.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 4.4% 2.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 9.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922023 INVEST 10/27/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##