* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINETEEN EP192023 10/29/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 40 44 50 54 51 51 48 48 49 52 57 60 64 69 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 40 44 50 54 51 51 48 48 49 52 57 60 64 69 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 37 39 43 44 43 41 38 36 35 36 38 41 46 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 9 10 12 14 15 22 21 25 26 23 16 12 6 3 8 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 7 4 1 0 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 2 6 7 2 3 SHEAR DIR 57 53 67 79 94 107 116 125 131 142 141 127 122 148 316 304 287 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.2 28.6 28.0 29.0 29.5 28.6 28.1 28.9 28.4 27.4 28.6 28.6 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 153 152 153 148 143 152 155 150 146 153 148 139 152 152 154 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.9 -53.1 -52.8 -52.6 -52.9 -52.3 -52.8 -52.5 -53.3 -53.0 -53.4 -52.8 -52.9 -52.5 -52.9 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 6 5 4 5 4 4 2 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 77 78 75 74 76 76 76 74 76 79 78 76 75 74 66 66 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 14 15 16 17 17 15 16 17 17 18 19 20 20 20 20 850 MB ENV VOR 58 54 51 44 42 33 42 44 48 55 37 36 20 6 -4 -9 -9 200 MB DIV 51 46 28 32 55 65 104 86 79 83 57 49 0 -48 -52 -1 55 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 2 3 6 6 7 4 0 0 LAND (KM) 416 395 375 368 360 294 214 95 43 152 382 535 616 744 903 1011 1005 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.7 10.9 11.0 11.0 11.4 11.9 12.7 13.1 12.2 10.5 9.5 9.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 92.8 92.8 92.8 92.7 92.7 92.0 90.8 89.9 89.4 90.0 91.4 93.2 95.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 1 2 5 6 5 1 8 11 9 10 12 13 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 16 17 17 17 17 12 9 17 22 14 8 15 11 3 19 14 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 482 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 7. 15. 21. 26. 31. 36. 40. 44. 46. 46. 46. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -4. -9. -14. -19. -23. -24. -23. -19. -13. -8. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 14. 20. 24. 21. 21. 18. 18. 19. 22. 27. 30. 34. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.5 92.8 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192023 NINETEEN 10/29/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.7 36.9 to 148.5 0.77 7.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.28 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 38.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.87 -6.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.39 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.88 4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.14 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.70 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.4% 21.4% 15.9% 12.4% 0.0% 17.5% 15.0% 9.6% Logistic: 5.6% 32.8% 10.1% 7.1% 1.2% 10.5% 12.7% 15.2% Bayesian: 0.3% 6.5% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 2.2% 0.8% 0.0% Consensus: 5.4% 20.3% 9.1% 6.7% 0.4% 10.1% 9.5% 8.3% DTOPS: 2.0% 15.0% 7.0% 5.0% 4.0% 8.0% 13.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192023 NINETEEN 10/29/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##